Somber Sunday: Hokies left out of Big Dance ...

Once upon a time, I was hit below the belt with a line drive off a baseball bat. I’d imagine that’s an apt description of how Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg felt when his Hokies were left out of the NCAA tournament field that was just announced.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team’s fortunes take such a terrible turn so quickly. After winning at Georgia Tech to finish the regular season, Greenberg and his guys thought they were, without a doubt, in the Big Dance.

Then they lost in the ACC quarterfinals to 12th-seeded Miami. That was bad, BUT the team – and almost every other “expert” – still thought Tech was in. As of Saturday morning, ESPN’s bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, had the Hokies in.

Then the dominoes started to fall, hard, against Tech. San Diego State, a big-time bubble team, upset tournament lock New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament, wiping out one valuable at-large bid.

Next up: Houston, with ZERO at-large hopes, upset Conference USA’s best team, UTEP, in their title game. Another at-large gone.

Tech’s tournament hopes grew darker when New Mexico State, again a team that wouldn’t have gotten an at-large, beat the best of the WAC, Utah State, in its title game.

Three at-large spots had evaporated in 24 hours. The final domino dropped when Minnesota upset No. 11 Michigan State then No. 6 Purdue to reach the Big Ten tournament finals, where the Golden Gophers lost by 29 to No. 5 Ohio State. But Minnesota’s ticket, apparently, was already punched.

Sunday’s main drama was whether Georgia Tech could beat Duke for the ACC tournament title, which might’ve boosted the Hokies’ resume, considering their recent win in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets gave it a go, but couldn’t close the deal.

Oh, and how about that SEC tournament final? Mississippi State almost wiped out another at-large bid against No. 2 Kentucky. The Wildcats needed an offensive rebound and put-back at the buzzer to force overtime, where they eventually won. That CRAZY finish looked like it might’ve saved the Hokies.

Turns out, not so much. Obviously, Greenberg and company are crushed.

Below, you’ll find a collection of notes I cobbled together throughout the day, as well as profiles of the seven biggest bubble teams that seemed to be competing for four spots. Also, you’ll hear from the head of the NCAA’s selection committee and from the disappointed coach himself.

Going to talk to Seth myself at 9:30, but this is the early dish ...

* Virginia Tech beat fellow ACC members Clemson, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest – all of which made the NCAA tournament field – in their only meeting this season. The Demon Deacons have lost 5 of 6. The Tigers have lost 3 of 5. The Yellow Jackets had lost 5 of 7, including a regular-season ending loss at home to the Hokies, before making a run to the ACC title game.

* Since the ACC’s schedule expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1992 with the addition of Florida State, no team had finished 10-6 and been left. No ACC team that has won 10 regular-season conference games has been left out since the NCAA field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

* In 2008, Tech became the first ACC team to win 10 in the regular-season and tournament combined and miss the tournament, since expansion. They were just the third 9-7 team (regular season) to miss the field.

* Virginia Tech lost 4 of 6 to end the season, including bad losses at BC and in the tournament to Miami. There was also the double-overtime heartbreaker at home to ACC co-champion Maryland.

* ESPN’S Dick Vitale was outraged that the Hokies didn’t get in over ACC colleague Wake Forest, which Tech beat head-to-head in their only meeting and which has lost 5 of 6. Vitale said, “Seth Greenberg got a raw, raw deal.”

* Just before the field was announced, as speculation on the bubble ran wild, ESPN’s Jason Williams said, “Minnesota challenged itself more” than Virginia Tech. Steve Lavin, former UCLA coach, said, “Very compelling argument (by Seth, who had just gone on their show live for the second time in 48 hours to make his case). ... I do go back to their non-conference strength of schedule. ... To Seth Greenberg’s credit, he can say they played some teams in the Big Ten that hurt their strength of schedule. But if you play, let’s say a West Virginia ... a home and home, you take yourself out of this situation down the line. Who you play out of conference is so critical.” To that, Doug Gottlieb said, “Would you play in Blacksburg? Heck no.”

* Gottlieb spent the entire afternoon defending the Hokies. He thought they were “solidly in” the field. “I think it comes down to: Do you value 10-6 in the ACC ... in a down year in the ACC?”

* ESPN’s Digger Phelps, former Notre Dame coach, said, “I'll never forget the year we didn't get in. We were really dejected, all of us. We thought we had enough wins. ... We had no interest in playing in the NIT. We get beat in the first round, season's over. ... It’s ugly. You feel depressed. You feel like your whole season is wasted.”

* Said Greenberg, in making his case before the selection show: “I think we’re a very good basketball team. I just told them how proud I am of them. Whatever happens today – I hope we are in; I think we deserve to be in – doesn’t take away from our season. ... If we’re having this discussion, this is exactly why ... the field needs to expand. These kids have worked so hard. They deserve that feeling to play in the NCAA tournament. ... I like my basketball team. If you think about our two road wins in the ACC – at Georgia tech and at N.C. State – those are the same two places that Duke did not win in the ACC. I think we are a team that could advance and win in the NCAA tournament.”

Now here’s how the Hokies stacked up with its closest competitors for an at-large bid ...

BUBBLE PROFILES

The Fortunate Four ...

* Minnesota – 21-12, 9-9 Big Ten. RPI 60, SOS 44, OOC SOS 76. Vs top 50: 5-6. Vs top 100: 6-8. Best wins: No. 12 Butler, No. 16 Purdue, No. 21 Wisconsin, No. 26 Ohio State, No. 28 Michigan State. Bad losses: No. 222 Indiana (road), No. 131 Michigan (twice), No. 115 Northwestern (road).

* Utah State – 26-7, 14-2 WAC. RPI 30, SOS 100, OOC SOS 97. Vs top 50: 2-1. Vs top 100: 10-5. Best wins: No. 22 Brigham Young, No. 43 Wichita State. Bad losses: No. 157 Utah (road), No. 111 Long Beach (road).

* Florida – 21-12, 9-7 SEC. RPI 56, SOS 36, OOC SOS 116. Vs top 50: 3-8. Vs top 100: 7-10. Best wins: No. 14 Tennessee, No. 28 Michigan State (road), No. 42 Florida State. Bad losses: No. 211 South Alabama, No. 106 Georgia (road).

* UTEP – 26-6, 15-1 C-USA. RPI 38, SOS 111, OOC SOS 173. Vs top 50: 2-1. Vs top 100: 8-4. Best wins: No. 45 Alabama-Birmingham (twice). Bad losses: No. 110 Houston (twice).

The Tough-luck Trio ...

* Virginia Tech – 23-8, 10-6 ACC. RPI 59, SOS 133, OOC SOS 339. Vs top 50: 3-4. Vs top 100: 8-7. Best wins: No. 33 Georgia Tech (road), No. 34 Clemson, No. 39 Wake Forest. Bad losses: No. 125 Boston College (road), No. 99 Miami (twice).

* Illinois – 19-14, 10-8 Big Ten. RPI 75, SOS 34, OOC SOS 110. Vs top 50: 5-9. Vs top 100: 6-10. Best wins: No. 21 Wisconsin (twice), No. 25 Vanderbilt, No. 28 Michigan State, No. 34 Clemson (road). Bad losses: No. 157 Utah, No. 115 Northwester (road), No. 106 Georgia, No. 105 Bradley.

* Mississippi State – 23-11, 9-7 SEC. RPI 55, SOS 74, OOC SOS 207. Vs top 50: 2-5. Vs top 100: 7-6. Best wins: No. 25 Vanderbilt, No. 27 Old Dominion. Bad losses: No. 159 Arkansas (road), No. 153 Auburn (road), No. 139 Rider, No. 132 Western Kentucky (road), No. 103 Alabama (road).

Finally, the fallout ...

DAN GUERRERO, NCAA tournament selection committee chair

ON WHAT BURST VIRGINIA TECH’S BUBBLE: “This year was particularly unique as it relates to the number of teams that the committee vetted out. During my entire five-year period (as chairman), it was greater this year than in any other year. And so we have to put a number of teams on the board and then make decisions that were very, very tough. It certainly was not an easy call for any one particular team. In the end, as it relates to Virginia Tech, we tried to distinguish between them and all of the other teams that we evaluated. ... There was one thing that I think stood out more than anything else. ... One of the things that allows us to distinguish between one team and another, as you well know, is strength of schedule, especially non-conference strength of schedule. And that was an area that really hurt Virginia Tech as we talked about whether they made the tournament or not.”

ON WAKE FOREST GETTING IN OUT OF THE ACC OVER TECH: “We looked at the quality of the victories that (Wake) had in the conference as being a real plus. They have six top-50 wins, including non-conference wins over Xavier, Richmond and Gonzaga. When you have a conference that has an unbalanced schedule, certainly schools sometimes don’t get the opportunity to dictate who they’re going to play. But in terms of Wake Forest, they had a formidable schedule in their particular conference and the committee felt they did reasonably well with that. The other thing is, when you’re evaluating teams, you’re not just evaluating, for example, a Wake Forest versus a Virginia Tech. You’re evaluating both of those teams against all of the other teams that are potentially in the field. No one game gets a team in. No one game puts you out, just in a general sense. Head-to-head certainly does have some bearing, but you have to look at the entire body of work before you state that as the final criteria.”

VIRGINIA TECH COACH SETH GREENBERG, from a live ESPN interview

ON BEING EXCLUDED: “It’s extremely difficult. There are so many teams that have a similar profile. It’s hard to win 10 games in the ACC. It’s hard to win at N.C State, believe me. A team that Marquette played at Marquette and couldn’t beat. It’s hard to win at Georgia Tech, a team that got to the finals of the ACC championship. The committee’s got a very difficult job, but obviously our kids are very disappointed.”

ON HIS TEAM’S WEAK STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: “This committee thinks that playing good people and losing is OK. But next year’s committee might have a totally different personality. And that’s the problem. They have to clearly define how you are going to be evaluated. And it’s got to be consistent. Until it’s consistent, each separate committee, because of the different directions of the committee and the members of the committee, are going to a have their own personalities and they’re going to have their own criteria. And you know what? If you schedule in a manner that maybe would be different from that criteria in that particular year, you’re not going to get in. We didn’t schedule to win 23 games. … We picked a bad time to play poorly. … Until the committee and the NCAA sets up: here is our criteria, whether it’s the RPI, whether it’s the non-conference strength of schedule, which is ridiculous because if you’re playing in our league, we played, I think, 16 teams or 15 teams in the top 100. We only had two teams in our league that weren’t in the top 100.”

ON WHICH AT-LARGE HE WOULD’VE LEFT OUT TO GET TECH IN: “I wouldn’t do that, because I wouldn’t want to take away from a team in their moment in time. I don’t think that’s fair. Those kids need to celebrate and feel good about themselves. I think that’s your guys’ job to pick that apart. It’s not my job to denounce another team that right now is in a position where they’re really celebrating and feel good about themselves. That’s sour grapes. That’s not right. It’s just not the right thing to do.”

ON THE NEXT STEP: “Obviously, we’re going to have to work really hard to get our guys back up and excited to play (in the NIT). But that’s my job.”

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