Things to think about heading into a NASCAR-free weekend

No racing this weekend as NASCAR gives way to the conference basketball tournaments and Selection Sunday. Still, much to think about (beyond Edwards-Keselowski). Here's a few things:

# Is the racing better this year? I've heard it from a number of people. Do you agree? It certainly was something to see Harvick and Johnson go side-by-side for the lead for a few laps in the middle of the California race, something you didn't always see there. Atlanta race was intereting with teams struggling with the tires before the wild final 20 laps. Two races have gone into double-overtime -- needing two attempts at a Green-White-Checkered finishi (Atlanta and Daytona). So, are you seeing what you like?

Consider these numbers:

Lead changes in the first four races in 2010: 127 (average of 31.75 per race)

Lead changes in the first four races in 2009: 57 (average of 14.25 per race -- remember last year's Daytona 500 shortened by 48 laps by rain)

Lead changes in the first four races in 2008: 120 (average of 30.0 per race)

Lead changes in the first four races in 2007: 100 (average of 25.0 per race) -- Those races run with old car before COT arrived

# Here's a look at the number of cars involved in crashes

2010 total through four races: 39

2009 total through four races: 31

2008 total through four races: 27

2007 total through four races: 36

# Lead changes in the last 20 laps of a race (through four races)

2010: 6 lead changes

2009: 4 lead changes

2008: 6 lead changes

2007: 5 lead changes

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DIRE POINTS SITUATION?

A number of past Chase drivers are outside the top 20 after 4 races, so could that mean a major shuffle in who makes the Chase this year?

A look at how far back some former Chase drivers are:

20. Carl Edwards ..... 47 points out of 12th

21. Juan Pablo Montoya ....64 points out of 12th

22. Denny Hamlin .... 73 points out of 12th

24. Martin Truex Jr. ....96 points out of 12th

29. Ryan Newman ....145 points out of 12th

Now at this time last year, three drivers outside the top 20 went on to make the Chase:

Juan Pablo Montoya was 21st after four races last year and was 67 points out of 12th. He had an average finish of 12.5 the remaining 22 races before the Chase to make it.

Ryan Newman was 32nd after four races last year and was 151 points out of 12th. He had an average finish of 11.5 the remaining 22 races before the Chase to make it.

Mark Martin was 34th after four races last year and was 189 points out of 12th. He averaged an average finish of 12.6 the remaining 22 races before the Chase to make it.

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RANDOM THOUGHTS:

# While Denny Hamlin has yet to put together finishes that would justify all the preseason attention as a title contender (and he was my pick to win the championship this year), keep an eye on him the next couple of weeks. He typically gets hot at Bristol and Martinsville to jump up in the standings. He's the only driver to have won at Martinsville not named Jimmie Johnson in the last seven races. Johnson has five wins during that time and Hamlin two, including last fall. Hamlin has an average finish of 2.8 in his last seven races at Martinsville. Hamlin has an average finish of 4.0 in his last four Bristol races. If he does close to what he's done there the past couple of years, he'll gain some points. If he doesn't, then his climb becomes more difficult.

# Perspective: Last year at this time, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 24th in the points. This year he's 13th. So,  yes there's improvement. Although it's, undoubtedly, not coming as fast as many of his fans want and that's understandable. Can this team make the Chase is the question? It's too early to tell. And, depending on who you believe, the spoiler could alter things quite a bit. His team is showing progress but still holding to my preseason predicition (and I've been wrong before) that he won't make the Chase. Need to see more out of this team. This team needs to be consistently strong and string a few top-10s in a row.

# Watch Matt Kenseth. We'll start to see how effective the crew chief change really was as Todd Parrott has time to start preparing the cars instead of working on cars that were prepared under the direction of Drew Blickensderfer. Does this team maintain its No. 2 spot in the Chase or slip?

# The top 9 in points are all either Chevrolets or Fords. Top Dodge is Kurt Busch in 10th and top Toyota is Scott Speed in 12th.

# Bonus points do matter. Jeff Gordon, 11th in the standings, has 20 bonus points (tied for series-high) and Scott Speed, in 12th, has 15 bonus points. Without those bonus points for leading laps, they wouldn't be in the top 12.

# Kyle Busch and Mark Martin combined to lead 688 of the 1,003 laps run at Bristol last year. That's 68.5 percent of the time either of those two were in the lead. Kyle Busch won both races there last year.

OK, that will do for now. Enjoy the weekend and let me know your take on the racing so for or what random thoughts you have about the season at this point.

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