Funny how things aren't always as they seem

I get a kick out of some folks who are already declaring Jimmie Johnson the champion since he has the points lead so early in the season. Certainly it's an easy assumption to make and understandable because everyone knows how good he is in those last 10 races of the season. The thinking is if he's so good now -- winning 3 of the first 6 races, thus piling up 30 bonus points already for the Chase -- what's to hold him back from winning several more races and building up a bigger advanage on bonus points.

While that's possible, let's take a look at a few things.

# Only once has the points leader after 6 races gone on to win the championship since the Chase debuted in 2004 _ Jimmie Johnson led the points at this time of year in 2006 and went on to the first of his four consecutive championships.

# The average finish position at the end of the season for the driver leading the points after 6 races is: 4.2

# Average position the eventual champion was in the points after six races is: 4.2

Thus, the driver fourth in the points at this time of the season (which is Kevin Harvick) seems to be the driver in the perfect position to win the title based on what has happened before. That doesn't mean he'll win it, just that he seems to be in position that for whatever reason seems to be the best for a title run.

Surprised the champion only has been leading the points once after six races since the Chase's debut? Shouldn't be. It's a long season. Remember, a year ago, Jeff Gordon was leading the points and many thought his drive for a fifth title was alive and well. While he did have a strong season even Gordon admits that he and his team did not get stronger as the season progressed, something Johnson and his team does so well. Thus, Gordon finished third. Not hard to fault but Gordon's standards are higher. It's why he and his team has changed its approach this season, attempting to experiment more early in the season to gain more knowledge that they can use later in the season and attempt to stop Johnson's reign or battle someone else for the title.

Also, there's another intersting thing when looking back even to last year.

A year ago, Gordon led the points and was all but running away from everyone (and this was before his win at Texas). Only one driver was within 100 points of Gordon at this time last year (Clint Bowyer was 89 points back). Compare that to this year. While Johnson leads, the next three drivers in the points are all within 70 points of him: Greg Biffle (14 back), Matt Kenseth (16 back) and Kevin Harvick (61 back).

Another interesting thing to note is that Gordon a year ago led 12th-place Matt Kenseth by 255 points. This year, Johnson's advantage over 12th place (held by Brian Vickers) is 164 points. Thus the top 12 are closer together than they were a year ago.

Go deeper into the standings and take a look at those trying to make the Chase and there's a different tale. A year ago, Mark Martin was 27th in the points at this this time of the year. He was 117 points out of the last Chase spot. Well, he went on and made the Chase. The key is to look at how many points back he was. He was one of five drivers not in the top 12 at this time of the year who made the Chase.

Will that happen again? It's possible with seven drivers within 80 points of the final Chase spot this year. But here's the kicker, recall that Martin was 117 points back last year at this time and still made the Chase (he had an average finish of 13.25 the final 20 races before the Chase to make it). Well, only 8 drivers this year are within that realm. Beyond 117 points out of the last Chase spot you have such drivers as Ryan Newman (122 points back), David Reutimann (166 points back) and Juan Pablo Montoya (171 points back).

Before the start of the season, Montoya's crew chief, Brian Pattie, noted that statistics showed that if a driver averaged a 14th-place finish (scoring 121 points each race) in the first 26 races, they'd more than likely make the Chase. Well, so far, Montoya's average finish this season is 24.8. To average a 14th place finish for the first 26 races, Montoya will have to finish an average of 10.75 the rest of the way -- thus he's going to need to AVERAGE just about a top 10 the rest of the way to make the Chase if it follows the form of how it has gone in years past.

Those are just a few things to ponder as the series prepares to head to Phoenix this weekend and things to watch. Other things to keep in mind this weekend:

# How will Denny Hamlin do in the car?  He had reconstructive knee surgery last week to repair the torn ACL in his left knee. Phoenix will be his first time in the car. Casey Mears is on standby. Another thing to consider is that Hamlin is a left-foot braker and there's a good bit of braking at Phoenix. Hamlin says that he'll have to use his right foot to brake at Phoenix and admits that it "changes things quite a bit. I'll try doing things just like I normally do to see what limits me at that point.''

# Kyle Busch. He's led only 37 of 2,074 laps run this year (1.8 percent of all laps run). Last year he ranked third in laps led with more than 1,100, trailing only Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. Busch,who is 16th in the points, has not led a lap at Phoenix since April 2006. Key is seeing how much longer it takes for Busch and new crew chief Dave Rogers to get everything figured out to get Busch back to the front.

# Carl Edwards. He has not led a lap yet this season. In fact, he's led only 7 laps in his last 28 races, dating back to last June. Granted, he's 14th in the points (just 7 points out of the last Chase spot) but to be considered a true title contender he'll need to start leading laps at some point. Phoenix hasn't been the best place for him to lead laps. He's led in only 1 of his 11 previous starts there.

That's a few things to get you thinking about the upcoming weekend.

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