Old, slow and not too bright. Welcome to Hampton Roads?

Cleveland. Detroit. Buffalo. Hampton Roads?

A report released today by the Brookings Institution lumps our region into a group of "the most demographically disadvantaged" of the nation's 100 largest metro areas, and it warns that an aging population and low education levels could hamper the region's growth.

The report, based on numbers from U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, came as a shock to some regional leaders.

"I can't imagine how under any set of metrics how you place us and Detroit in the same category," said Dwight Farmer, executive director of the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission. "It's like apples and kumquats."

The report suggests that Hampton Roads will need to address issues of brain drain and economic diversification to keep up with other regions in coming years.

"Maybe this is the wake-up call the area needs in becoming a lot more aggressive in thinking at a regional level," said Associate Professor Larry Filer, an economist at Old Dominion University in Norfolk.

"What this study is doing is being very forward-looking and saying who has the best potential for high economic growth going forward, and I don't think we have the best potential for that," Filer said. "That's the cautionary tale here - it's not where we are now. It's where we're going. The good thing is we have a chance to make some changes."

The study from Brookings, a Washington-based think tank, looked at immigration, education, aging and transportation. It then ranked the 100 largest metro areas on each issue and lumped together those regions facing similar problems.

The "success stories" of the decade - cities with the most growth, highest educational attainment and most diversifying populations - were deemed "Next Frontier" regions. Those included Seattle; Washington, D.C.; San Antonio; and Denver.

At the other end of the seven-category spectrum - cities with low rates of growth, educational attainment and diversity - were clustered under the "Industrial Cores" designation. Those include Wichita, Kan.; Grand Rapids, Mich.; Memphis; and Hampton Roads.

"That's a pretty big category, and there's continuum even within that category," said Alan Berube, senior fellow at the Brookings Metro Program. "Detroit's at one end, and Virginia Beach may be at that other end."

Because of the region's military presence, Hampton Roads' economy has performed better than most. Farmer noted that Detroit's unemployment rate was 2-1/2 times our local rate and that the military and ports offered high-paying jobs for people without college degrees.

"When you look at it through that lens, it's pretty good," he said.

Nonetheless, Hampton Road s' population growth rate over the past three years was 10th-lowest of the 100 largest metro areas, at 0.1 percent. And with 27.4 percent of Hampton Roads' adults holding four-year degrees - less than the national average - the area isn't well-equipped to diversify its economy, Berube warned.

"That sort of sets the boundaries for your long-run growth," Berube said. "There are limits to the sorts of jobs and industries that a region can attract and grow if it doesn't get more educated over time."

According to a 2010 report from the Hampton Roads Partnership's Vision Hampton Roads project, the area also has had the lowest rate of business startups among Virginia's regions and lagged behind others in the pace jobs are added.

In a presentation to regional leaders last month, Brookings' Senior Fellow Robert Puentes said the region lagged in some of the key areas of the next American economy, from lowering carbon emissions to fostering innovation.

ODU's Filer said those were issues local groups were trying to address, doing everything from expanding light rail to looking at fields such as simulation and modeling for new economic development opportunities

"In some sense, it's disingenuous," he said of the report. "Because it's discounting this fact that we've been making adjustments to what this new city is going to be. We have light rail that's being built, we have conversations about these things.... It's a shame that process hasn't happened sooner, but at least it's taking place now."

The region scored low in the "diversity" rankings because of low numbers of immigrants arriving to Hampton Roads and to the small Asian and Hispanic populations, Berube said.

Individuals in those specific ethnic groups tend to be younger and are more likely to be families with children, unlike the aging black and white populations, he said.

Overall, metro areas in the next decade will see huge growth in their numbers of elderly residents. Without the younger population growing at the same rate, regional work forces could become lopsided. Too many of one age group also could heavily burden certain municipal and social services, Berube said.

Yet Greg Grootendorst, the chief economist at the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, said a large number of senior citizens may not be a bad thing. Affluent seniors looking to retire to a beach area could help support expansion of health care options. Meanwhile, they wouldn't strain local schools or other services.

"That's hardly a negative," he said."

Grootendorst said he hoped people wouldn't see the region's "Industrial Core" ranking as a negative.

"Things do look bright for this area, regardless of what tag line or thing we're put under," he said, pointing to Hampton Roads' low unemployment, large middle class and steady economy.

"Growth does not equate to high quality of life. And we do have a relatively high quality of life."

Meghan Hoyer, (757) 446-2293, meghan.hoyer@pilotonline.com