Expert says high-speed rail to D.C. would run at $1B surplus

Correction: The original version of this story incorrectly said a study suggested that high-speed trains between Hampton Roads and Washington could produce a surplus of nearly $1 billion a year. The study said the trains could generate a surplus of nearly $1 billion over the 30-year life of the project.

CHESAPEAKE

A railroad consultant predicts that high-speed trains between Hampton Roads and Washington would not only be popular, but also highly profitable - operating at surpluses of up to $1 billion over the 30-year life of the project.

Local transportation officials, however, are highly skeptical.

Alex Metcalf, president of Transportation Economics & Management Systems Inc., said the preliminary results of his study surprised even him, generating double the ridership that he'd expected.

"Like most people, I'd never heard of the Hampton Roads -Washington rail corridor - it has no profile outside of Virginia," said Metcalf, whose business is in Frederick, Md. He said his projections show it's as economically strong as the main rail corridors planned in Florida and Ohio, both of which won millions of dollars in federal stimulus money this year. He said it's one of the top 200-mile high-speed rail corridors in the country, with the potential for 4 million riders in 2025.

The corridor, with trains running to both South Hampton Roads and the Peninsula, could cost between $3 billion and $6 billion to develop and would generate an operating surplus of $500 million on the Peninsula and nearly $1 billion in South Hampton Roads by 2025.

Those numbers are based on trains running at 150 mph on the Southside and 110 mph on the Peninsula. The trip to Washington would take 2 hours from Norfolk and 2 hours, 22 minutes from Newport News, he said.

Slower trains, at 79 mph, would lose money and higher-speed trains, starting at 90 mph, would yield smaller profits, he concluded.

Metcalf presented his findings Wednesday to the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization, which paid him $167,000 to develop a Preliminary Vision Plan for high-speed rail. The organization is considering extending Metcalf's contract to more fully develop his findings.

"I see a pot but not the roast," Del. Glenn Oder of Newport News said, questioning how Metcalf arrived at his findings. "How are we making these quantum leaps without meat on the bones? "

Del. John Cosgrove of Chesapeake said: "It's an awfully happy presentation, but a lot of us are thinking how in the world did they come to those conclusions."

Metcalf's work is meant to supplement some of the studies the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation is doing on high-speed rail from Hampton Roads.

"We are very concerned about the assumptions we're finding in this study," said Amy Inman, state transit planning manager. She said some of the assumptions are "very aggressive."

Metcalf said he's been building high-speed rails for 40 years across the world and he's confident in his findings. He said he's developed 150 train forecasts and they've been accurate within 20 percent.

"We'd be the first to say, 'No, guys, don't waste your time on this,' " he said, as he did to officials after studying a Kansas City-to-Denver corridor.

"But this is a very buildable corridor. I'm surprised nobody's done anything about it in the past, " he said.

Dwight Farmer, planning organization executive director, said the board will conduct a peer review of Metcalf's work "with a healthy skeptical eye."

"There's a lot of questions about the numbers, the assumptions, the policies," he said.

Several planning organization board members said they don't want their skepticism of Metcalf's findings to be interpreted as opposition to high-speed rail.

"It's important we support this," said Portsmouth Councilwoman Elizabeth Psimas. "High-speed rail has garnered more support than any other transportation project in the region."

Hampton Roads Transit President and CEO Philip Shucet urged the group not to let the long-term prospect of high-speed rail overshadow the more attainable conventional passenger train that the state is working to bring to Norfolk within three years.

That train would be the first passenger service in South Hampton Roads in more than three decades and would connect to Norfolk's light-rail line at Harbor Park.

Debbie Messina, (757) 446-2588, debbie.messina@pilotonline.com