This a pivotal time for Dale Jr., Biffle and others trying to hold on to top 12 spot

Time is quickly running out on those trying to make the Chase with eight races left, beginning with Saturday night's race at Chicagoland Speedway.

 

To review, 251 points separate 9th-place Tony Stewart and 17th-place David Reutimann. Carl Edwards sits 12th in the standings but has only a 39-point lead on 13th-place Mark Martin, a 49-point lead on 14th-place Clint Bowyer and an 80-point lead on 15th-place Ryan Newman.

 

In the middle of that is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is 11th in the standings, 7 points ahead of Edwards.

 

This is key time for all of the drivers but especially for Dale Jr. He's finished 11th or better in each of the last four races. While he's been running better, even he's admitted luck has played a role in some of his strong finishes -- and he knows that he can't rely on luck. He knows that performance will determine if he makes the Chase. Yet, it's more than making the Chase for Dale Jr. Consider what he said at New Hampshire a couple of weeks ago:

 

"We can run like we have the last couple of weeks and make the Chase but that doesn't win a championship either,'' he said. "We need to step it up because we could make the Chase but it just becomes a pain in the ass because we're in the Chase and we're not contenders and we've got to do all the (expletive deleted) that you got to do as a Chase member, going to New York and all this stuff .It ends up being more work than anything else.''

 

The point he was making was that it's no fun to slip into the Chase knowing your chances are slim of winning the title and going through all the hoopla around it. He -- just like any other driver -- is in it to win and to be a part of something like that when the chances are slim of winning is not a lot of fun.

 

Dale Jr. needs to keep scoring a lot of points the next couple of weeks at Chicago and Indy becuase he admits he's really struggled at Pocono (19th in June) lately and then the series goes to Watkins Glen where it's well known Earnhardt is not a strong road-course racer. Take a look at the stats below but among the drivers 9th-17th in the points, Dale Jr. does not compare well with many of those drivers at Indy, Pocono and Watkins Glen. 

 

He's likely to lose points at Pocono and Watkins Glen, so he needs to gain points at Chicago and Indy. Thing is at Chicago his average finish in his career there is 15.2 -- and he hasn't finished better than 15th in his last three trips there. Then at Indy, Dale Jr. started 3rd and ran well there last year until a blown engine relegated him to 36th. He needs to run like he did until the engine problem and finish stronger there. If not, after Pocono and Watkins Glen, he'll have only four races to make up any deficit he might have to get into the Chase. That leaves little margin for error.

 

He isn't the only driver who faces a great challenge in the next few weeks. David Reutimann and Kasey Kahne -- longshots at best -- don't seem to be in a good spot to make up much ground based on their history at the upcoming tracks, while Greg Biffle could be in danger of falling out of the top 12 sometime in the next four week. Based on this history, it would seem Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin could be ones to move into the top 12 sometime during the next four races, if history holds true.

 

Here's a deeper look into the Chase hopes for the drivers 9th to 17th in the points, looking at their average finish at the next four tracks.

 

CHICAGO

 

1. Tony Stewart ........... 9.5

2. Clint Bowyer ...........12.5

    Mark Martin .............12.5

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ..15.2

5. Greg Biffle ...............15.4

6. Ryan Newman .........16.1

7. Carl Edwards ...........21.6

8. David Reutimann .....23.0

9. Kasey Kahne ...........25.0

 

INDIANAPOLIS

 

1. Tony Stewart ............8.5

2. Carl Edwards ..........11.2

3. Mark Martin .............13.3

4. Clint Bowyer ............13.5

5. Greg Biffle ...............15.4

6. Kasey Kahne ..........16.0

7. Ryan Newman ........21.4

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ..21.7

9. David Reutimann ....25.3

 

POCONO

 

1. Mark Martin ..............11.1

2. Tony Stewart ............11.4

3. Carl Edwards ...........13.2

4. Ryan Newman .........13.4

5. Kasey Kahne ...........16.3

6. Clint Bowyer ............16.5

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ...17.4

8. Greg Biffle ................18.2

9. David Reutimann .....25.0

 

WATKINS GLEN

 

1. Tony Stewart ...........5.2

2. Mark Martin .............7.7

3. Carl Edwards ..........8.8

4. Clint Bowyer ...........15.5

5. Ryan Newman ........16.8

6. Kasey Kahne ..........18.3

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ..22.6

8. Greg Biffle ..............25.2

9. David Reutimann ...29.0

 

 

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