Hokies Camp 2010, Vol. 7: A closer look at Boise State by the numbers ...

The math seems so simple. Boise State went 14-0 last season, won a BCS bowl game, and returns 22 of 24 starters. That equals 2010 national title contention, no?

Hey, I used that basic math when I slotted the Broncos in the top five of my preseason Associated Press poll ballot (which I’ll reveal very soon). But is it really so simple? 

Does 14-0 and everybody back really equal a top-five team, no matter what?

Let’s pause for a moment, imagine last year’s Virginia Tech team, which won 10 games, led eventual national champion Alabama in the fourth quarter and walloped Lane Kiffin’s Tennessee team in a bowl game.

Now imagine those Hokies playing the following regular-season schedule: Oregon, Miami (Ohio), Fresno State, Bowling Green, U.C. Davis, Tulsa, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico State.

How does 2009 Virginia Tech fare against that slate? Any worse than 12-1? Quite possibly 13-0?

That’s what Boise State ran the table against last season – and that’s certainly not the Broncos’ fault. They did schedule (and beat) Oregon out of conference. And they did take down unbeaten TCU in the Fiesta Bowl (in a rock fight, against a team with similar schedule-strength questions).

So the question sort of still lingers: How good, really, is Boise State? Many people expect this game against Virginia Tech to help answer that question.

I wanted to do a little early searching, though. Take a closer look at some key numbers. Below are a few bullet points that are fairly eye-opening.

The gist of what I found: Boise State’s offense last year may have been a little overrated. The Broncos’ defense, though, probably a tad underrated. Turning the same microscope on Virginia Tech, it looks like perhaps the Hokies’ vaunted defense was a touch overrated in 2009. And the much-maligned offense? Underrated, all things considered.

Does this get us any closer to predicting the outcome of the Sept. 6 Hokies/Broncos showdown? I doubt it. But food for thought, nevertheless ...

* Boise State’s offense, which ranked 10th nationally in total yards per game (450.3), faced 13 Division I-A defenses last season – which ranked an average of 81st nationally in yards allowed. The Broncos beat up on seven teams whose defenses ranked 90th in the country or worse. Only Oregon in Week 1 and TCU in the bowl game had defenses rated higher than 60th. Boise had its two least-productive games against the Ducks and Horned Frogs, averaging only 339 yards.

* Virginia Tech’s offense, which ranked 49th nationally in total yards per game (392.1), faced 13 Division I-A defenses last season – which ranked an average of 41st nationally in yards allowed. The Hokies had to face three top-10 defenses (Alabama, Nebraska, North Carolina) and six top-30 defenses. And they still improved their average production by almost 90 yards per game over 2008.

* Boise State’s defense, which ranked 14th nationally in yards allowed (300.2), faced 13 Division I-A offenses in 2009 – which ranked an average of 43rd nationally in yards per game. The Broncos slowed down three top-10 offenses and six top-20 units. The only problem with this stat is, as we’ve already covered, defenses in the WAC are weak, which pads the league’s offensive stats. Or is this a chicken/egg issue. Maybe the offenses really are excellent, making the defenses look worse than they are. Confused yet?

* Virginia Tech’s defense, which ranked 12th nationally in yards allowed (295.5), faced 13 Division I-A offenses in 2009 – which ranked an average of 74th nationally in yards per game. The Hokies feasted on five offenses ranked 80th or worse, nine ranked 60th or worse. That same chicken/egg argument can be made here. The ACC is known for great defenses, so maybe the offenses the Hokies faced weren’t quite as bad as the numbers suggest.

* The Broncos, who ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring offense (42.2 ppg), only put up 19 points on Oregon and 17 points on TCU. They scored at least 28 against every other team on the light-weight schedule – and 40-plus in 10 of their games.

* The Hokies, who ranked No. 9 nationally in scoring defense (15.6 ppg) gave up season highs of 34 and 28 points to Alabama and Georgia Tech, the only truly potent offensive attacks they faced. 

So what does this all mean? That debates will rage on, unsettled, until Boise State and Virginia Tech smack helmets on Labor Day night. I, for one, am as intrigued by this game as any I’ve covered in seven seasons on the Hokies beat.

* For instant updates on the Hokies, follow me at twitter.com/kyletuckerVP

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