Although down by 41 points, is this really Denny Hamlin's championship to lose?

Halfway through the Chase and it is shaping up to be a three-man race for the title with Jimmie Johnson leading Denny Hamlin by 41 points and Kevin Harvick by 77 points.

While Talladega looms among the final five races of the season, the true question isn't if Johnson will win a fifth consecutive series title but if this is Hamlin's champonship to lose.

On the surface, the question will seem outlandish to some, no doubt. How can you say it's Hamlin's to lose when he's trailing the four-time champ? Fair enough. Well, let's look at some things.

# The series heads to Martinsville this weekend. Hamlin has won three of the last five there (Johnson has won the other two). Hamlin is seeking to score his third consecutive win at that track. He led 172 laps in winning in the spring. Johnson was ninth in that race and has said they tried some things that didn't work and will go to a different setup. OK, so go back to last fall when Hamlin won after leading 206 laps and Johnson finished 2nd after leading 164 laps. And go back to spring 2009 and Johnson won while leading only 42 laps and Hamlin finished 2nd despite leading 296 laps. ... Hamlin has finished no worse than 2nd in the last three races at Martinsville. He needs a win to gain on Johnson. Even if Johnson finished 2nd to Hamlin on Sunday, Hamlin likely would gain about 20 points on Johnson.

# That takes them to Talladega. Roll the dice here. Johnson has three top 10s in the last six races there but only one top five. Hamlin has three top 10s in the last six races there _ all are top-five finishes. What happens here is anyone's guess. If they remain close, then it's off to Texas.

# Hamlin won at Texas in the spring in a sign of his improving strength on the 1.5-mile tracks. Of course, Johnson finished 2nd that day. Again, even if they finished like that in the fall, Hamlin would gain 15-20 points on Johnson. However, Johnson has three runner-up finishes in the last five races at Texas (all were in the spring race), so this is a challenge for Hamlin. He might have to hope for avoiding a big  loss this day.

# Then it's off to Phoenix. Hamlin finished 30th there in the spring but remember that was the first race after his arthroscopic knee surgery. Plus a battery problem put him two laps down (Johnson was 9th that day). In the four Phoenix races before this season, Hamlin finished 3rd, 6th, 5th and 3rd. Of course, Johnson had three wins and a fourth-place finish in that stretch. On paper, Johnson's experience in the Chase should help him but keep in mind this is a flat track and Hamlin also excels on such tracks. If you lump this with New Hampshire and Martinsville, both Hamlin and Johnson are about equal. So, this could lead to a showdown ...

# At Homestead. Only once has Johnson really had to go for the win in this race to get the championship and that was in 2005 when he finished 2nd to Greg Biffle in the race and lost the championship to Kurt Busch by 8 points. During the past four years, he's not had to push it to win the race to win the title because he came in with a lead. Hamlin did win last year's race at Homestead in what was a key result for the team to break from the stretch of victories on a flat track he had. He's since followed it with a win at Texas in the spring (and a win at the 2-mile  Michigan track earlier this year).

OK, so let's look at a few more things:

# If this remains close, everything will be under intense inspection. Thus, pit road could be key. After struggling at California, Johnson's pit crew performed better at Charlotte last weekend.

He made an interesting comment the other night about how things have been up-and-down at times on pit road by saying: "I think the pressure we feel on pit road, that's the part where I think we got hurt the most from having a slow summer is not having those guys against the fastest crew guys every stop. They did a great job through the summer months, but when you are running 15th or 20th or whatever we were doing, flopping around in the middle of the pack, it's easy to look good on pit road at that point. When you get up front and you're against these Gibbs guys and even the 24 has got a really fast p it crew -- and our guys are really fast but they just haven't been pushed. It's one thing to operate at 8/10ths and be nice and smooth, but when you're at 10/10ths at every stop, there's a certain rhythm to that. I felt bad that we were not better in the summer to put them in that pressure situation to come into the Chase ready.''

Something else to note: NASCAR times teams on pit road from the moment the car gets on pit road to the moment it leaves pit road. While much can happen between those two moments during a pit stop, it should be noted that Hamlin's average time on pit road has been faster than Johnson's average time on pit road in each of the first five Chase races. Certainly, there can be various reasons for that from one team making a change that takes a few seconds longer on a stop to being blocked in your stall by another car to just being a bit more careful going down pit road so as not to get called for a speeding penalty. Still, it's worth noting about Hamlin's pit crew.

# Another key thing that could determine this Chase is aggressive driving. Both get up on the wheel when they have to do so, but the key is knowing when to make that move and when to be careful. That said, a key question for Hamlin is when does he feel he needs to turn up the wick.

Consider what he said after Saturday's race at Charlotte: "I'm minimizing my risk right now and I feel like if I'm going to have a shot to win this thing when we get to Homestead, I've got to minimize those risks. I can't be sticking it three-wide on restarts and things like that. People do and I don't. I take a little more conservative approach and it cost me five points here and there every couple of races, but the main thing is that I'm not racing my way out of this thing these first five races.''

At some pont, he'll have to be more aggressive considering Johnson's track record in the last five races. Remember, aggression cost Hamlin the Chase (along with some engine issues) when he made a bold move last year at California and wrecked himself. That move was likely too early in the Chase.  With only five races to go, the question is when does it become time for such moves? 

So there's a few arguments for why this might be Hamlin's title Chase to lose. If he and Johnson (and Harvick) don't have problems the rest of the way, it will be tough to beat Johnson, no doubt. But this might be Hamlin's year.

What do you think?

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