Nye, Rigell in dead heat in 2nd District race, poll finds

With a week remaining in the combative 2nd Congressional District election, the contest is a dead heat between U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Scott Rigell, according to a new poll of likely voters.

The telephone survey found that Rigell was favored by 41.5 percent, Nye by 41 percent, and 12 percent were undecided. The third candidate, independent Kenny Golden, was backed by 5 percent.

All of those polled said they intend to vote Nov. 2, and eight in 10 said they are paying particular attention to the congressional contest.

Those polled also expressed deep concerns about the recession and the federal government's actions on both domestic policies and the war in Afghanistan. Just over half of those polled say the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapprove of the performance of President Barack Obama.

The poll, sponsored by Christopher Newport University, The Virginian-Pilot and 13 News, was conducted Oct. 15-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

"Voters are in a pretty sour mood," said CNU political science professor Quentin Kidd, who supervised the poll. "But they aren't completely sold on the idea of getting rid of Nye and hiring Rigell. Rigell is in the better position because he doesn't have to defend the status quo, but for some reason voters are hesitating on him."

The 2nd District includes all of Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore and parts of Norfolk and Hampton.

Rigell, 50, is the owner of three car dealerships and is making his first bid for elected office. Nye, 36, is a former foreign service officer seeking his second two-year term in Congress. Golden, 60, is a retired Navy captain. All three live in Virginia Beach.

Support for Rigell and Nye varied when broken down by age and race. Nye tended to have more support among 18- to 24-year-olds while Rigell polled strongest with voters over age 65.

Black voters tended to more strongly support Nye, while Rigell had a lead among white voters. Race was also a dividing line in voters' feelings about Obama. Almost all blacks polled approved of the president's performance while whites disapproved by two-to-one margin.

The issues

Those surveyed said the most important issues as they consider who to support for Congress are jobs and the economy, followed closely by federal government spending and the deficit. About one in three of those polled has been laid off or had a relative lose a job in the past two years.

More than half said they do not think the economic stimulus bills approved in recent years have helped the country's job situation. And 83 percent said they don't believe they or their families have personally benefited from stimulus spending.

Nye and Rigell have been divided on stimulus spending. Nye supported the 2009 economic stimulus bill that was to spend $787 billion on jobs and other programs, but he opposed spending billions to bail out financial institutions and automakers. He also voted against the federal budget in 2009, saying it was too much in the red.

Rigell has been critical of all the measures, saying they hurt the economy by massively expanding the federal debt with few positive results.

When asked about how several issues affect their choice of a candidate, voters said they are least concerned with gay rights, losing a Norfolk-based aircraft carrier to Florida and the planned closure of the military's Joint Forces Command.

Just over half of those polled didn't like the new health care law - and of those, three of every four said they want it repealed as soon as possible.

Respondents were split over whether they are personally affected by the new law, which will require everyone to have some form of health insurance and which bans insurers from denying coverage because of pre-existing conditions. More than a third said the new law has no effect on them or their families.

About one in four said they'll benefit from the law and more than one in three said they'll be harmed by some provisions.

Most young voters - ages 18 to 24 - like the new health care legislation. But most people over 24 dislike it.

Rigell has said he wants Congress to repeal the health care law or at least refuse to provide funding for major components. Nye, who said he voted against the Democratic legislation because it didn't do enough to lower health care costs, favors amending, not repealing it.

Voters in the district, which is home to the biggest naval base in the world and a large number of military retirees, also expressed concerns about the conflict in Afghanistan.

Six of every 10 people polled said they do not believe the United States and other NATO forces are winning the war, and almost one in four were either unsure, didn't know or refused to say.

Concern about the war was particularly strong among 18- to 24-year-olds. None thought the United States was winning. Men tended to be less optimistic than women about the conflict, and there was not a significant difference in the views of Democrats and Republicans.

What it means

The new survey indicates the race has tightened and the number of undecided voters decreased since the release of the last independent poll conducted Sept. 25-27 for The Hill, a Washington newspaper. In that poll, 42 percent of likely voters favored Rigell, 36 percent liked Nye and 19 percent were undecided.

The Pilot's poll reinforced views found in The Hill's survey that the tea party, a conservative grassroots movement, has mixed support in the 2nd District.

Those polled were almost evenly divided between those who like the tea party, dislike it or have no opinion. Only one in 10 said they are part of the movement.

The CNU/Virginian-Pilot/13 News poll is based on landline and cell telephone interviews with 490 likely voters in the congressional district. It was designed by CNU's Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy with interviews conducted by the Virginia Tech Center for Survey Research.

Bill Bartel, (757) 446-2398, bill.bartel@pilotonline.com

2nd Congressional District election poll