Part 1 of 3 looking at the Chase: Why Denny Hamlin will win the championship

The next couple of days, I’ll do a blog on each of the title contenders and why they’ll win the championship. I’ll go in order in points, so I’ll start with Denny Hamlin.

So, here’s why Denny Hamlin will win the championship Sunday at Homestead:

# He’s got the faster car.

Speed is king. He led 190 of 312 laps at Phoenix. If you want to discount that, since they’re racing at Homestead this weekend (a 1.5-mile track, while Phoenix is a 1-mile track), that’s fine. Hamlin led the last 29 laps at Texas in his win two weeks ago in the most recent race on a 1.5-mile track. Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick each led only one lap in that race.

Thing is, Hamlin’s car has just been better in the races lately, been faster and been stronger. Look, check out what Jeff Burton says of what having a fast car (like Hamlin has had lately) can mean:

“With speed you are afforded mistakes,’’ Burton said. “If you’re not fast enough then every mistake that you make … is very, very hard to overcome. With speed, you can withstand a bad pit stop a little better because you can make it up. You can withstand a mistake by the driver on a restart. You can overcome things easier. It all hinges on how fast your car can go. If you don’t have the speed that you need, then it’s very difficult to mount a challenge to do all the things that you need to do.’’

That’s the issue Johnson and Harvick face again. They have not been able to keep up with Hamlin. That’s not a good thing when you’ve got to beat the guy to win the championship.

# Hamlin won at Homestead last year.

Yes, it was a year ago but that win _ overshadowed by Jimmie Johnson’s fourth consecutive championship _ was pivotal for Hamlin, who led the most laps that day. Hamlin had never won a Cup race on a 1.5-mile speedway before that day. No longer was he just a threat at Martinsville, Pocono and Richmond. It was that victory that helped lead him to win at such tracks as Texas (twice), Darlington and Michigan this season _ all 1.5 to 2-mile tracks that he hadn’t won at before.

“That was probably one of the biggest wins for the 11 car to date, knowing that you could go compete on a mile and a half in a pressure situation and get the win,’’ said Hamlin’s crew chief Mike Ford.

# Hamlin hasn’t blinked in the Chase.

Sure, he got a bit lazy and lost the draft at Talladega, falling a lap behind but he recovered. So far, that’s been the only obvious mistake he’s made as a driver (he’s can’t do anything about fuel mileage if he’s not told ton conserve) in the Chase _ unlike last year when he wrecked himself on a restart at California trying to get ahead of Juan Pablo Montoya for the lead. Hamlin admits he was worried about Jimmie Johnson behind him and moved too quickly. He seems to have learned from his mistake, which (along with mechanical failures) cost Hamlin a chance at the title last year.

Hamlin seems more comfortable in the pressure situations. He’s handling himself better. He was headed for a second-place finish before he had to pit late at Phoenix and while he wasn’t pleased with finishing 12th _ that’s his worst finish in the Chase.

Now, he hasn’t been in a situation quite like this, though. This will certainly test him. Yes, he entered the 2006 season finale at Homestead tied for third with Kevin Harvick but was 90 points behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. and even admitted he wasn’t confident of his chances back then. Well, he enters Sunday’s finale as the points leader. It seems to be a role he’s been groomed for. Now, he just has to prove it.

OK, so those are a few reasons one could argue why Hamlin will win the title. Don’t agree, go ahead and say so. Like one of the other two title contenders, remember, I’ll do a blog on each of them and their case for winning the championship.

COMMENTS ADVISORY: Users are solely responsible for opinions they post here; comments do not reflect the views of The Virginian-Pilot or its websites. Users must follow agreed-upon rules: Be civil, be clean, be on topic; don't attack private individuals, other users or classes of people. Read the full rules here.
- Comments are automatically checked for inappropriate language, but readers might find some comments offensive or inaccurate. If you believe a comment violates our rules, click the report violation link below it.