Hampton Roads will lose legislative power due to census shift

RICHMOND

Hampton Roads will take a hit when legislative district lines are redrawn this year to reflect population changes over the past decade.

The region's population has grown about 6 percent since 2000, according to preliminary data released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That's less than half of Virginia's statewide growth rate of 13 percent, which means the region can expect to lose representation when the required remapping is done.

If it's any consolation to local politicians, the misery will be widespread. Vast swaths of Virginia west of Hampton Roads also have grown more slowly than the state as a whole. Some localities have lost population.

The big winner is Northern Virginia, which grew at a robust 24 percent.

That means a decades-long trend of shifting political power from downstate to the booming Washington suburbs will continue.

The shift will leave local lawmakers of both parties scrambling to save their own skins in a zero-sum game of political musical chairs.

The process will play out against the backdrop of a divided state legislature. Republicans have a comfortable majority in the House of Delegates, and Democrats have a slight edge in the state Senate. Each party will be striving to hang onto the seats it holds while hoping to poach a few from the other side.

The Senate will be particularly contentious, since it would take a shift of only two seats to give Republicans effective control of the 40-seat chamber. That would produce a clean sweep for the GOP: control of both legislative chambers and all three statewide offices.

Hampton Roads' relatively anemic population growth has left almost every state legislative district in the region short of the ideal number of residents - 80,010 for a House seat and 200,026 for a Senate seat. The region as a whole will have to give up almost 1-1/2 House seats and about eight-tenths of a Senate seat.

The census numbers are full of danger signs for Democrats.

Del. Lynwood Lewis, a Democrat who represents the Eastern Shore and slivers of Norfolk and Hampton, saw his district slump a whopping 35 percent below the ideal population. The redistricting process generally aims to draw districts within 2 percent of the ideal.

That means Lewis' district will have to draw in many more mainland residents. That could put Del. Paula Miller, a Democrat who represents the Ocean View area of Norfolk, in jeopardy.

Since each chamber's majority party will control the redistricting process for that chamber, Democratic delegates such as Lewis and Miller will be at the mercy of Republican House leaders.

"There's nothing I can do about it," Lewis said with a shrug Thursday.

Miller, too, is braced for the worst. "I think it will be very unfortunate if the northern part of Norfolk and Ocean View are represented by somebody from the Eastern Shore," she said, referring to Lewis.

At the other end of the spectrum, Del. Chris Jones, a Republican from Suffolk, saw his district grow 16 percent above the ideal, so he will have to shed voters.

In the Senate, Democrat Ralph Northam, who represents northern Norfolk and the Eastern Shore, now has a population 24 percent below the ideal. On the Peninsula, Democrat John Miller's district is 15 percent below the ideal.

Legislators who will play key roles in the redistricting process weren't very forthcoming Thursday about the strategies they're devising to protect their own.

"People have been spinning scenarios for months, but they're based on no data," said Sen. Janet Howell, D-Fairfax County, who chairs the Senate Privileges and Elections Committee.

Even if lawmakers aren't speaking publicly about their plans, however, they are plotting.

One potential casualty of any reshuffling done in the Senate is the current level of Virginia Beach representation.

There's been talk of merging some of the territory now covered by Republican Sens. Frank Wagner and Jeff McWaters, who represent much of the city even though a few other senators have portions of the Beach in their districts.

"Right now, we only have two senators representing a city of more than 400,000 people," Wagner said. "It would be a shame to kick the largest city in Virginia down to one senator."

Wagner said he's hopeful the Democratic majority in the Senate will avoid that course of action.

State lawmakers also will be tasked with redrawing Virginia's 11 congressional districts.

Even though the state's population grew to 8 million from 7 million over the decade, that's not enough to warrant an additional seat in Congress. So legislators will have to redraw the existing districts to near-equal size.

In that process, too, Hampton Roads will take a hit. Freshman Republican Rep. Scott Rigell's 2nd District, encompassing Virginia Beach, the Eastern Shore and parts of Norfolk and Hampton, is 11 percent below the ideal population - the biggest deficit among the 11 congressional districts in the state.

Bill Sizemore, (804) 697-1560, bill.sizemore@pilotonline.com

Julian Walker, (804) 697-1564,julian.walker@pilotonline.com