Emerging from a crowded field

By Charles W. Dunn

With Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels and Donald Trump out, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty in, and Michele Bachman, Rudy Giuliani and Jon Huntsman coming to the starting gate, Mitt Romney is the odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential derby. Because of his advantages, it's now his race to lose.

First, Republicans have a history of nominating someone with experience on the presidential racetrack, such as Richard Nixon in 1960 and 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980 and John McCain in 2000 and 2008. Also, Romney comes from a family of political movers and shakers, including his late father, who served as governor of Michigan and was a one-time front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 1968.

Second, in 2008 Romney built an effective national organization, which he has continued to strengthen. His support now reaches into all segments of the Republican Party, even among many evangelical Christians, who could have objected to his Mormon faith.

Third, while other candidates make headlines, such as Gingrich, Romney has quietly focused on fundraising and organization-building, positioning himself to go the distance through all of the caucuses, conventions and primaries.

Fourth, Romney remains the GOP front-runner in public opinion polls. Unless and until another candidate edges him out in the polls, no one else will likely be able to raise the funds and build the organization necessary to win the nomination.

Fifth, many leading GOP financiers have not committed their resources to any candidate, which benefits Romney. The longer he demonstrates organizational strength, fundraising prowess and polling leads, GOP leaders and financiers will wager on the favorite.

Sixth, so long as the U.S. economy remains stagnant, Romney benefits. His successful record as a can-do, take-charge businessman shows executive ability both as a governor of Massachusetts and CEO of 2002 Winter Olympics.

Seventh, Romney not only has the looks and charisma of a strong leader, he is a seasoned debater, whose experience should stand him in good stead in the Republican presidential debates and later with President Barack Obama. In these debates, he will bring experience from the last four years and his earlier experience as a political and business leader.

Eighth, among all of the Republican candidates, only Romney has had first-hand executive experience in dealing with one of America's foremost problems, health care. Though considered an Achilles heel by some, "Romneycare" in Massachusetts has a plus side, showing that he is a courageous and creative executive.

Ninth, timing and geopolitics favor Romney in the Triple Crown of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His Midwestern roots in Michigan has helped him build a political organization in this region but especially in Iowa. Then his Massachusetts residence, next door to New Hampshire, has already benefited him in early polling, showing him far and away the front-runner. Finally in South Carolina, the gateway to the South and the third in the Triple Crown, Romney has carefully cultivated the state's GOP leadership and built a competitive organization.

Tenth, in "The Tortoise and the Hare," the tortoise embodies the law of politics, steadiness and strategic thinking. While the hare slept, the tortoise walked on by. He won the race, not because of speed or cunning, but because of his motivation and concentration on the goal of winning. More than any of the other would-be nominees, Romney passes this test. The nomination is his to lose.

Charles W. Dunn is a professor at the Robertson School of Government at Regent University. Email: cwdunn@regent.edu.