Poll: Va. voters split on Obama re-election

With the national elections 16 months away, Virginia voters appear to be on the fence as to whether President Barack Obama should get a second term and who might be the state's next U.S. senator, according to a poll released Thursday.

A strong majority of those polled also said they don't think U.S. military forces should be involved in Afghanistan or Libya right now.

Meanwhile, a majority said they approve of the job performances of U.S. Sens. Jim Webb and Mark Warner, both Democrats.

The telephone survey of registered voters conducted June 21-27 by the Quinni-piac University Polling Institute, indicates that Obama, who won Virginia in his 2008 election, could have a tough fight next time, regardless of who becomes the GOP's presidential candidate.

A strong majority said they like Obama as a person. But respondents split evenly when asked if they approve of his performance as president.

Forty-three percent said they would vote to give him a second term, and 41 percent would vote for whomever the Republicans nominate. Roughly one in six people polled were undecided.

The survey of 1,434 voters has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut-based institute, said Obama's great strength in Virginia and other states will be that voters like him personally.

"The Republicans must make this election about his policies if they are to prevail," Brown said.

Mirroring trends in the 2008 election, the president was favored by almost nine of every 10 black voters. A narrow majority of white voters said they would support a Republican. Obama also appeared to have stronger support from voters under age 35 and those with college degrees.

The pollsters' inquiries about the state's 2012 U.S. Senate race focused solely on a potential fall general election contest between Democrat Tim Kaine, a former governor, and Republican George Allen, a former senator and governor. The other five candidates competing against them for the respective party nominations were not mentioned by name.

Voters were split - 43 percent for Kaine and 42 percent for Allen - when asked which of the two they would support if the general election were held at the time of the poll. Eleven percent said they were undecided, and 2 percent mentioned another candidate.

Five Republicans and two Democrats have filed to run for the seat now held by Webb. Competing in the June 2012 GOP primary with Allen are Tim Donner, a Great Falls businessman; E.W. Jackson Sr., a Chesapeake-based minister; David McCormick, a Virginia Beach attorney; and Jamie Radtke, a former state tea party leader. The other Democrat seeking the party's nomination is Julien Modica of Reston.

Voter discontent with U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and Libya tended to be strong regardless of age, gender or race.

Sixty percent of those surveyed said the United States should not be involved in Libya, 31 percent said military action is the right thing, and 9 percent were undecided. The war in Afghanistan was opposed by 55 percent and supported by 38 percent, while 7 percent were undecided.

Of voters whose household includes someone in the military, most opposed the two overseas operations. Fifty percent opposed U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and 61 percent opposed the Libya campaign.

Webb, who has been particularly outspoken in his opposition to the Libya operations, was given a positive approval rating by 50 percent of those polled. Thirty-one percent disapproved and 18 percent were undecided or didn't know. Warner enjoyed a 57 percent approval rating, with 29 percent disapproving and 14 percent saying they were undecided or didn't know.

Bill Bartel, (757) 446-2398, bill.bartel@pilotonline.com

____

Document: The full poll results