The coming Defense cuts

Somewhere between Armageddon and business as usual is a snapshot of the military presence in Hampton Roads by the end of the decade.

Thousands fewer soldiers and sailors. Fewer weapons systems and defense contracts. Jobs, departments consolidated.

As a dozen members of Congress negotiate in private on ways to cut $1.5 trillion from the federal budget deficit over the next decade, the Department of Defense's $550 billion annual budget is under the knife.

Already, the Obama administration is targeting $450 billion in defense cuts over 10 years. Congress' supercommittee has until Nov. 23 to bring a plan to the full Congress. Its members have a month to approve or reject the proposal. If nothing passes - and if Congress doesn't amend the budget law passed this summer - an additional $500 billion will automatically be cut from defense spending over the next 10 years.

Predictions across the country have been dire. Some talk about having to bring back the draft. Some say hundreds of thousands of civilian defense workers would be furloughed. The House Armed Services Committee suggests military families would see higher costs for on-base schooling, higher prices at the commissary, less money for tuition assistance.

That's "a worst case of a worst case," Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told The Pilot's Bill Bartel.

Some perspective is necessary. Defense spending has more than doubled in the past decade. It accounts for one-fifth of the federal budget. Taking the Pentagon's budget back to 2007 levels shouldn't threaten national security.

Among the possibilities: Another round of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission, which would result in fewer bases but would be expensive in the short term.

More likely, local military experts say, are moderate cuts that could strengthen one Hampton Roads base but hurt another. If the F-35 jets set to replace FA/18s are taken out of the budget, for example, Oceana Naval Air Station would be secure. If the Navy loses two carriers, however, tens of thousands of jobs will likely disappear from the region.

Hampton Roads, with an $8.2 billion military and civilian payroll, counts on defense for 45 percent of its economy. The negotiations and grandstanding under way in Congress now simply underscore the need for this region to aggressively pursue other industries. Technology. Modeling and simulation. Coastal energy. Manufacturing.

To lure those industries, we need more effective ways to get goods in and out of the region. We need skilled workers. We need cities to work together.

Business leaders have been saying this for years. The Hampton Roads Planning District Commission has identified areas the region could work on to lessen its reliance on the Department of Defense. The Hampton Roads Partnership has a plan to incubate new businesses. The Chamber of Commerce has sounded the alarm. So has every civic organization. So have the leaders of every municipality and school division.

This vulnerability is nothing new. Neither is the talk about shifting the region's economy. We can either anticipate defense cuts and begin to trim our heavy reliance on the Pentagon, or we can react, as we did in the last BRAC round, when the changes are forced on us.