Rising seas and denial in Carolina

Submerging your head in water is no more effective a way to confront a looming problem than burying your head in sand. But it's an ever-popular problem-solving technique among folks who want to deny evidence that sea levels are rising.

The latest practitioners include NC-20, a coalition of business leaders and public officials from 20 counties in North Carolina, including the northeastern stretch of the state.

The group, which usually focuses on economic development matters, is taking issue with state recommendations that coastal communities prepare for rising waters in the decades ahead.

As The Pilot's Jeff Hampton reported, a state-appointed panel of scientists warned last year that sea levels could rise from 15 inches to 55 inches along North Carolina's coast by the end of this century. The panel recommended that the state and its coastal counties base their policies and planning guidelines, including building regulations, on a 39-inch increase.

The warnings aren't unique to North Carolina, of course. Government and public policy organizations have issued repeated warnings to Hampton Roads over the years. Insurance companies are planning for trouble. The Navy has been preparing its facilities for years. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ranked the Hampton Roads region 10th in the world in financial vulnerability, second only to New Orleans in the United States.

There's little reason to believe that nearby northeastern North Carolina and low-lying communities such as Elizabeth City and Edenton aren't susceptible, too. But NC-20 has decided to believe precisely that.

"The rate of sea-level rise is not one speck higher than it was 80 years ago," said Dave Burton, a computer science professional who analyzes climate data for NC-20.

That's definitely not the case in Norfolk, which has witnessed a 14.5-inch increase over the past 80 years, a combination of seas rising and the ground subsiding.

The degree of sea-level rise that counties such as Currituck, Dare, Pasquotank and Perquimans should prepare for is debatable. Perhaps 39 inches is too much.

But the science behind this is more than a "what if," to borrow a phrase from one of NC-20's leaders.

The cost of making adjustments now for rising sea levels will be a bargain compared with what future generations will pay if current leaders do little or nothing to prepare. It's those future generations, in fact, who'll see their world submerged if today's leaders fail to act.