Week 6 | The Pilot's NFL picks

GAME OF THE WEEK

San Francisco (4-1) at Detroit (5-0), 1 p.m.

The line   Detroit by 4½

Outlook  Detroit’s No. 7-ranked passing offense (283.8 ypg) should thrive on San Francisco’s 23rd-ranked pass defense (264.4). The Lions, though, have trailed in the second half in each of their past three games, so expect a tight contest.

Quick hit   Lions RB Jahvid Best, coming off a 163-yard game, is not a good fantasy play against a run defense tied for fourth in the NFL (76.4).

Match-up  The noise at Ford Field on Monday helped force Chicago into 14 penalties. San Francisco, which already has a 12-penalty game this season at Cincinnati, will need to stay composed.

The pick  Detroit seems to have a certain magic this season that’s hard to go against. Lions 27, 49ers 24.

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St. Louis (0-4) at Green Bay (5-0), 1 p.m.

The line   Green Bay by 15

Outlook  St. Louis had last week off to try to fix its 28th-ranked pass offense and No. 32 run defense. Green Bay has the No. 4 passing offense and No. 3 run defense, but No. 30 pass defense.

The pick  Packers QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown for less than 297 yards all season. Packers 33, Rams 20.

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Jacksonville (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2), 1 p.m., WTKR

The line   Pittsburgh by 12

Outlook  Jacksonville has lost four straight and hasn’t scored more than 20 points all season. Pittsburgh has won both its home games this season by at least 21 points.

The pick  Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert struggles mightily against the No. 1 pass defense. Steelers 30, Jaguars 13.

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Philadelphia (1-4) at Washington (3-1), 1 p.m., WVBT

The line   Philadelphia by 1½

Outlook  Philadelphia has lost four straight, allowing at least 24 points in all of those games. Washington had last week off to fix its one weak link, its No. 19 pass offense (229.2)..

The pick  Desperate Philadelphia picks off Redskins QB Rex Grossman three times in a win. Eagles 27, Redskins 24..

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Carolina (1-4) at Atlanta (2-3), 1 p.m.

The line  Atlanta by 4

Outlook  All of Carolina’s games have been decided by seven points or less, including last week’s 30-27 loss to New Orleans. The No. 23 run offense and No. 28 pass defense are why Atlanta is slumping.

The pick  Despite its loss last week, Atlanta is 9-2 in its past 11 regular season home games. Falcons 27, Panthers 20..

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Indianapolis (0-5) at Cincinnati (3-2), 1 p.m.

The line  Cincinnati by 7

Outlook  All of Indianapolis’ past four losses have been by eight points or less; the Colts have led in the second half in the past three. Cincinnati has won two straight, posting big fourth quarters in both.

The pick Colts QB Curtis Painter comes up just short against the No. 3 pass defense (191.0). Bengals 23, Colts 20.

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Buffalo (4-1) at N.Y. Giants (3-2), 1 p.m.

The line   N.Y. Giants by 3½

Outlook  All of Buffalo’s past four games have been decided by seven points or less; Buffalo is 3-1 in those games. New York has the No. 9 pass offense (275.4) but the No. 28 run offense (83.8).

The pick  Giants QB Eli Manning throws for 300 yards against the No. 26 pass defense (283.4). Giants 30, Bills 24.

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Cleveland (2-2) at Oakland (3-2), 4:05 p.m.

The line   Oakland by 6½

Outlook  Cleveland had last week off to try to fix its No. 27 run offense (85.8) and No. 25 run defense (124.5). Oakland has the No. 2 run offense (161.8) so expect a big game from RB Darren McFadden.

The pick  With an easy upcoming schedule, look for Oakland to go on a roll to honor late owner Al Davis. Raiders 24, Browns 14.

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Houston (3-2) at Baltimore (3-1), 4:05 p.m.

The line   Baltimore by 7½

Outlook  Houston has lost two straight, failing to score more than 20 points in either game, and won’t have WR Andre Johnson. Baltimore has won two straight, scoring at least 34 points in both.

The pick  The key battle will be Houston’s No. 5 run offense vs. Baltimore’s No. 2 run defense. Ravens 31, Texans 21.

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Dallas (2-2) at New England (4-1), 4:15 p.m., WVBT

The line   New England by 7

Outlook  Dallas had last week off to try to fix a pattern of late collapses; it led by double digits in both its losses. New England had a 100-yard rusher last week (Green-Ellis) for the first time all season.

The pick  New England has the No. 1 pass offense, while Dallas’ is third, so expect a shootout. Patriots 34, Cowboys 26.

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New Orleans (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2), 4:15 p.m.

The line   New Orleans by 4½

Outlook  New Orleans has won four straight and has scored at least 23 in every game this season. Tampa Bay hasn’t scored more than 24 all season and gave up 49 to the 49ers last week.

The pick  Tampa Bay bounced back from its first loss with a tough win at Minnesota. Buccaneers 27, Saints 24.

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Minnesota (1-4) at Chicago (2-3),  8:20 p.m., WAVY

The line   Chicago by 3

Outlook  Minnesota’s losses are by a combined 19 points, and the Vikings posted a 24-point win last week. Chicago has lost 3 of 4, allowing at least 24 points in every game.

The pick  Minnesota’s No. 31 pass offense won’t take advantage of Chicago’s No. 27 pass defense. Bears 24, Vikings 19.

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MONDAY

Miami (0-4) at N.Y. Jets (2-3), 8:30 p.m., ESPN

The line   N.Y. Jets by 7

Outlook  Miami had last week off to try to fix its No. 31 pass defense (307.0) and get new QB Matt Moore ready. New York has lost three straight, allowing at least 30 points in each game.

The pick  Miami has lost by less than 10 points once this season, and New York needs a victory. Jets 27, Dolphins 17.

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Last week’s picks

Straight up: 7-6 (53-24 for the season).

Against the spread: 5-8 (34-38-5 for the season).

Upset special: 0-1 (3-2 straight up for the season).