GOP expected to press advantage in redistricting

Efforts to create a second Virginia congressional district with a black majority are fading after voters on Tuesday put Republicans in control of both chambers of the General Assembly.

Republicans are expected to push in January for adoption of legislation similar to a GOP-backed House bill that would adjust some boundaries for the 11 congressional districts but would leave only the 3rd District, home of U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, with a black majority.

Some Democrats dissatisfied with the House GOP's plan are considering asking state or federal courts to intervene and draw the district lines, according to a Democratic source familiar with litigation discussions. They think the GOP approach is unfair and would violate the state constitution by failing to approve the reapportionment this year, the source said.

The law requires that boundaries for federal and state elected bodies be adjusted this year and every decade after, taking into account population changes from the U.S. census.

Mary Spain, a senior attorney for the state's Division of Legislative Services, said the constitution doesn't specify a penalty if the reapportionment is delayed. It's unclear how a court might respond to a legal challenge, she said.

Supporters of a challenge have argued that blacks make up 20 percent of the commonwealth's population and that the district lines should be drawn to increase the potential for the state's U.S. House delegation to include two African Americans rather than one.

Without the legal challenge, Democrats - particularly the state senators in the Black Legislative Caucus - would lose crucial leverage they've employed this year to push for stronger minority representation. Tuesday's election led to the Senate shifting from a Democratic majority to a 20-20 split with Republicans, and all ties will be decided by Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican.

The statehouse debate has involved two competing redistricting proposals.

The Republican-controlled House approved a plan last spring that makes some adjustments for population changes but keeps the current districts largely intact. Scott's district would be almost 60 percent black.

The Democratic-controlled Senate rejected it, proposing instead a plan that would give the 4th Congressional District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes, a 53 percent black majority. The proposal would significantly reduce Forbes' political strength by dividing Chesapeake, where he enjoys strong voter support, among three districts. It would shift the district from a GOP majority to a Democratic one, while reducing the minority population of Scott's district to 45 percent.

A six-person legislative conference committee set up to work out a compromise between the two bills has not met since it was appointed in June.

House Speaker William Howell, R-Stafford County, said Republicans tried to bring Democrats back to the bargaining table before the election, but "they didn't seem to want to do it."

State Sen. Mamie Locke, D-Hampton, who led the Senate delegation of the conference committee, said no one ever had such a conversation with her. She noted that the Republicans' chief negotiator, Henrico County Del. Bill Janis, stepped away to run for another office and has yet to be replaced.

Locke said she hopes the panel can reach a compromise that the General Assembly can consider before Dec. 31. But she said she won't accept any plan that doesn't set up a second district with a black population of at least 40 percent. After Scott's district, the closest under the GOP bill would be Forbes' district, with 32 percent.

Howell said now that the GOP will have a working majority in the Senate next year, he prefers to wait until January, when, he predicted, legislators can quickly approve new boundaries. The new lines would need to be in place in time for next year's congressional elections.

The General Assembly already has approved new district lines for its own state House and Senate districts.

Locke said that if Republicans are able to shift the redistricting decision to next year, any plan still would require the approval of the U.S. Department of Justice because of Virginia's past problems with voting rights violations. If members of the black caucus object to the plan, federal authorities will notice, she said.

State Sen. John Watkins, R-Powhatan County, acknowledged any plan adopted next year likely will be challenged.

"I suspect that certain members will probably file suit or they will have individuals file suit in federal court over a new plan," he said. "This is not going to be one of our better hours, either way."

Bill Bartel, (757) 446-2398, bill.bartel@pilotonline.com

Julian Walker, (804) 697-1564, julian.walker@pilotonline.com