Week 16 | The Pilot's NFL picks

GAME OF THE WEEK

Atlanta (9-5) at New Orleans (11-3), 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

The line  New Orleans by 6½

Outlook  New Orleans, which clinches the NFC South with a win, has won six straight and is 6-0 at home, averaging 39.8 ppg. Atlanta has won 4 of 5, and is 4-3 on the road, averaging 21.4 ppg.

Quick hit   New Orleans won 26-23 at Atlanta in Week 10, kicking a field goal in overtime.

Match-up  Which pass defense steps up will be key. Atlanta’s 17th-ranked pass defense needs to contain the No. 1 passing attack, while New Orleans’ 28th-ranked pass defense faces the No. 9 pass offense.

The pick  New Orleans QB Drew Brees closes in on Dan Marino’s passing yardage record with another 300-yard game. Saints 38, Falcons 27.

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Oakland (7-7) at Kansas City (6-8), 1 p.m.

The line  Kansas City by 2

Outlook  Both teams are still in contention for the AFC West title. Oakland has lost three straight. Kansas City won 28-0 at Oakland in Week 7, but hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since Week 8.

The pick  Oakland is hurting on offense, and Kansas City would love to end its rivals’ playoff hopes. Chiefs 20, Raiders 17.

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Jacksonville (4-10) at Tennessee (7-7), 1 p.m.

The line  Tennessee by 7½

Outlook  Jacksonville is 1-2 under interim coach Mel Tucker. Tennessee, which needs to win its last two games to keep its playoff hopes alive, expects to have RB Chris Johnson healthy.

The pick  Expect a tight, low-scoring contest; Tennessee lost 16-14 at Jacksonville in Week 1. Titans 16, Jaguars 14.

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St. Louis (2-12) at Pittsburgh (10-4), 1 p.m.

The line  OFF

Outlook  Both teams could start backup QBs. Charlie Batch will replace Ben Roethlisberger for Pittsburgh and Sam Bradford is doubtful for St. Louis. Kellen Clemens could get the nod.

The pick  Even if Roethlisberger doesn’t go, Pittsburgh will score enough to stay in the AFC North title hunt. Steelers 23, Rams 6.

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Denver (8-6) at Buffalo (5-9) 1 p.m., WTKR

The line  Denver by 3

Outlook  Denver has struggled against good pass teams, and Buffalo is 10th in the NFL with 22 passing TDs. However, Buffalo has lost seven straight, averaging a mere 14.3 ppg in that span.

The pick  The Tim Tebow magic resumes after a one-week hiatus, with the QB leading another late rally. Broncos 17, Bills 16.

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Tampa Bay (4-10) at Carolina (5-9), 1 p.m.

The line  Carolina by 7½

Outlook  Tampa Bay has lost eight straight, allowing at least 23 points in every game in that span. Carolina has won 3 of 4, and hasn’t scored less than 23 points in a game since Week 10.

The pick  Carolina won 38-19 at Tampa Bay in Week 13, when Cam Newton ran for 3 TDs and threw one. Panthers 38, Buccaneers 19.

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Minnesota (2-12) at Washington (5-9), 1 p.m., WVBT

The line  Washington by 6½

Outlook  Minnesota hasn’t held a team to less than 21 points since Week 5, allowing 33.3 ppg since then. Washington has averaged 23.2 ppg the past five games, all against teams .500 or better.

The pick  Washington is trying to finish strong; Minnesota is fighting for the No. 1 draft pick. Redskins 23, Vikings 13.

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Cleveland (4-10) at Baltimore (10-4), 1 p.m.

The line  Baltimore by 12½

Outlook  Seneca Wallace with be the QB for Cleveland, which last scored more than 20 points in Week 2. Baltimore won 24-10 at Cleveland in Week 13, and needs two wins to clinch the AFC North.

The pick  After regaining control of its destiny with Pittsburgh’s loss Monday, Baltimore won’t slip. Ravens 27, Browns 10.

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Miami (5-9) at New England (11-3), 1 p.m.

The line  New England by 9½

Outlook  Miami is 1-0 under interim coach Todd Bowles, and has won 5 of 7 overall. New England, which won 38-24 at Miami in Week 1, has won six straight by an average of 17 ppg.

The pick  Take the over; New England is averaging 35.8 ppg during its current win streak. Patriots 35, Dolphins 23.

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N.Y. Giants (7-7) at N.Y. Jets (8-6), 1 p.m.

The line  N.Y. Jets by 3

Outlook  The Giants have lost 5 of 6, allowing 31.3 ppg in that span. The Jets have won 3 of 4, averaging 27 ppg in that span. The Giants’ playoff hopes are slim with a loss; the Jets can more afford to lose.

The pick  The Jets’ No. 21 passing attack won’t do enough against the No. 29 pass defense (257.5). Giants 27, Jets 24.

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Arizona (7-7) at Cincinnati (8-6), 1 p.m.

The line  Cincinnati by 4

Outlook  Arizona, which has won 6 of 7, is likely to stick with John Skelton at QB. Nine of Cincinnati’s games have been decided by seven points or less, with the Bengals 4-5 in those games.

The pick  Arizona is 2-5 on the road, with the wins coming over sub-.500 Philadelphia and St. Louis. Bengals 20, Cardinals 13.

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San Diego (7-7) at Detroit (9-5), 4:05 p.m.

The line  Detroit by 2½

Outlook  San Diego has averaged 36.3 ppg during its current three-game win streak. Detroit needs one more win to clinch its first playoff berth since 1999. The Lions have won two straight.

The pick  San Diego needs this one more than Detroit, which will face a resting Green Bay in Week 17. Chargers 27, Lions 24.

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San Francisco (11-3) at Seattle (7-7), 4:15 p.m.

The line  San Francisco by 2½

Outlook  San Francisco has a short week after playing Monday, and has lost two straight road games. Seattle has won 5 of 6 to climb into the playoff hunt, but lost 33-17 at San Francisco in Week 1.

The pick  Seattle is surging at the right time, and beat San Francisco 31-6 at home last season. Seahawks 17, 49ers 13.

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Philadelphia (6-8) at Dallas (8-6) 4:15 p.m., WVBT

The line  Dallas by 1½

Outlook  Philadelphia has won two straight to climb back into the NFC East title hunt, and beat Dallas 34-7 in Week 8. Dallas’ RB situation is in doubt. If ailing Felix Jones is out, Sammy Morris will start.

The pick  Dallas is 5-2 at home, and it sounds like Jones will go against the No. 17 run defense. Cowboys 23, Eagles 20.

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SUNDAY

Chicago (7-7) at Green Bay (13-1), 8:20 p.m., WAVY

The line  Green Bay by 13

Outlook  Chicago is turning to QB Josh McCown, who hasn’t started since Dec. 23, 2007. If Seattle beats San Francisco, Green Bay will have clinched the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

The pick  Count on Green Bay having nothing to play for and resting a few of its starters. Packers 27, Bears 17.

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Last week’s picks

Straight up 9-7 (150-74 for the season).

Against the spread 5-8-1; no line on two games (106-107-9 for the season).

Upset special 1-0 straight up (7-8 for the season).