Even measuring Va. Beach light-rail opinions is divisive

VIRGINIA BEACH

Voters could be asked to weigh in on a proposed light-rail line as early as November, months before a federally funded transportation study for such a project is scheduled to be complete.

A majority on the City Council supports a referendum before moving forward with the project, and some, including Mayor Will Sessoms, said they're willing to consider placing a question on the ballot this fall.

The presidential contest Nov. 6 will draw the largest and most diverse sample of voters, supporters say, and a light-rail question then would once and for all gauge whether the general public supports a light-rail line in the Beach.

Waiting could weaken the city's ability to compete for federal transportation money, Sessoms said.

Opponents of a fall referendum, however, said it would be irresponsible to ask voters to make a decision without details. Even if voters signed off this year, the City Council couldn't take action on light rail until the middle of 2013. That's when Hampton Roads Transit is expected to complete its $6.6 million feasibility study; it will include ridership projections and cost estimates to extend The Tide from Norfolk to the Beach.

"I am not willing to support holding a light-rail referendum until we're able to tell voters how much it will cost and how it will be paid for," said Councilman John Moss, a skeptic on the issue.

Voters already have some of that information, said Councilman Jim Wood, a light-rail advocate and former HRT board chairman. An HRT consultant estimated it would cost $807 million to extend light rail to the Oceanfront, or $254 million to take it a shorter distance to Town Center, according to preliminary information released last spring.

The relative success of The Tide in Norfolk also serves to inform voters, Wood said.

He's undecided on a fall referendum, he said.

The push for trains in the Beach hit a snag last spring, when HRT paused its feasibility study after Federal Transit Administration officials asked that it include actual ridership counts from Norfolk, where The Tide began running in August.

The Beach study is a critical step toward winning federal funding for light rail and is scheduled to restart later this year. It should be finished by the summer of 2013, HRT President Philip Shucet said.

The City Council initially hoped to take several months to review the study before holding a referendum this year. Some on the council had said a vote should wait until the study is finished.

There's little appetite among council members for a referendum in an off-year election, when turnout is usually low. And waiting until the midterm election in 2014 or the next presidential cycle in 2016 could place the city behind other municipalities competing for transportation dollars, supporters said.

"Delaying it could kill it," Sessoms said. "If the federal money dries up, that's the end of it."

Councilwoman Barbara Henley proposed wording a question to ask voters for guidance - "Should the City Council continue to pursue light rail?" for example - instead of asking for a direct yes or no on specifics. By law, any referendum outcome would be advisory; the City Council would make the final decision.

Councilman John Uhrin said he would support asking voters for general direction.

"Even if voters approved a referendum, it would still be the council's responsibility to weigh the cost and make a decision."

Council members Bob Dyer and Bill DeSteph oppose a referendum this year. Vice Mayor Louis Jones also said the vote should wait.

Before he was elected to the council last fall, Moss frequently spoke out against light rail as chairman of the Virginia Beach Taxpayer Alliance.

DeSteph said holding a vote before the study is finished is "political posturing." He compared it to a child asking his mother if she would "consider allowing" him to have a cookie.

"That's ridiculous."

Jones, who hasn't come out for or against light rail, said holding a vote too soon could backfire.

"I think you subject yourself to considerable criticism if you do it this way."

Sessoms said he's confident a light-rail question would pass.

"People around here are pretty smart, and I think they are supporters of it."

In a 1999 referendum, Beach voters rejected light rail 54 percent to 46 percent. Opponents raised thousands of dollars and campaigned aggressively against the referendum, which asked voters whether they supported "an ordinance approving the development and financing" of a light-rail line.

At the time, estimates called for a $975 million light-rail network from downtown Norfolk to the Virginia Beach Pavilion (where the Virginia Beach Convention Center now sits), with a link to Norfolk Naval Station.

Since then, shifting demographics, the development of Town Center, and higher-than-projected ridership on Norfolk's 7.4-mile light-rail line have shifted public perceptions, supporters say.

A recent poll by Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Public Policy found that three out of four Beach residents support extending light rail into their city.

Researchers interviewed about 800 randomly selected residents, split evenly between Norfolk and Virginia Beach. When asked whether they supported extending light rail, 15 percent of Beach residents said they disapproved.

The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Political science professor Quentin Kidd conducted the survey and said a referendum question on light rail probably would pass. He said a vote in the fall, when President Barack Obama's name is on the ticket, might further boost its odds of passage.

"If the electorate in November is made up of more young people and more minorities - the groups of people likely to come out for Obama - I think that probably does help supporters of light rail," Kidd said. "Those are the people who like the idea of light rail but would be less likely to come out specifically for a referendum vote in other years."

Even if a referendum question passed this fall and the City Council committed to light rail, HRT officials said, construction wouldn't begin until at least 2019.

Mike Hixenbaugh, 757-222-5117, mike.hixenbaugh@pilotonline.com