ODU experts critique their 2011 forecast

In addition to unveiling their 2012 economic forecast last week, Old Dominion University professors looked back. They reviewed not only the economy's performance last year, but also their own.

As finance professor Mohammad Najand acknowledged at one point, "It seems like we really missed that." He was referring to their prediction for the rate of growth of the U.S. gross domestic product last year. The ODU team had first predicted 3.4 percent. Over the summer, it revised that estimate to 2.0. The actual number turned out to be 1.7 percent.

Likewise, the economists expected the "gross regional product" to increase 3.1 percent in 2011. They toned down the prediction midyear to 1.9 percent. The final result: 1.3 percent.

Najand and Vinod Agarwal, the director of Old Dominion's Economic Forecasting Project, cited several unforeseen events in 2011, including the euro crisis, the U.S. debt-ceiling standoff and a revision by the U.S. Commerce Department of income data from previous years, which they had used in the forecast.

Agarwal said the annual projections are based on what they know as of late January. "Are we going to be always on the mark? Probably not," he said. "We hope we get the direction straight. And we hope we are giving businesses a sense of where we are and where we were and where we might be."