When the defense cuts hit home

By Jim Arkedis

In Tuesday's State of the Union, President Barack Obama offered a robust vision of America's place in global politics, saying "America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs - and as long as I'm president, I intend to keep it that way."

It was his most succinct statement on his plans to "keep America on top" in a changing and more frugal world. The wars are ending, America faces new security challenges and, for the first time since the 1990s, the defense budget is under serious scrutiny. The administration has said it will save $487 billion, or 7.5 percent of its budget, over 10 years from the Department of Defense.

What is Obama's plan to lead the military in coming years? And how might changes affect southeastern Virginia?

Two documents lay out specifics. In early January, Obama's Pentagon released its Defense Strategic Guidance, the first plan to articulate new priorities. The second, to be released in mid-February, is the defense budget - the critical link between federal dollars and new priorities.

Big plans from Washington might seem vague and vapid, but they shouldn't be ignored. They start a discussion that will eventually affect communities well away from Washington. Even slight shifts in defense strategy could have a profound effect on a military-heavy area like Hampton Roads.

In its plans, the Obama administration pledged to maintain its commitment to the Middle East but re-emphasize the Pacific region. Europe, on the other hand, must begin accepting more responsibility for its own security.

The pendulum has swung toward technology and away from manpower. The two spaces - "cyber" and "outer" - will become ever more contested territory, and the administration plans to increasingly defend American interests in both.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon plans to avoid manpower-intensive, sustained deployments like Iraq and Afghanistan and will reduce the Army by 50,000 service members (5 percent) and the Marine Corps by 27,000 (11 percent) over five years through buyouts, attrition and early retirement.

The military last faced these kinds of tough choices during the Clinton administration. But in the '90s, America didn't face as obvious a national security rival, and each defense account could be sliced somewhat evenly across the board.

Today's evolving threats mean the same approach can't be used: Certain defense accounts will be cut, some left untouched and others beefed up. And all accounts will be pressured, like Newport News Shipbuilders and its new aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, to get more bang for the Pentagon's buck.

Will the Navy - the largest local military service with some 273,000 sailors, civilian employees and family members - and its related industry end up a loser, a winner or stay about the same in coming years?

I estimate that local prospects under these new priorities are decent, if not slightly positive. Unlike the Army and Marine Corps, Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus has said that cuts to the Navy's end strength - and by extension the Hampton Roads economy - will be relatively small. Mabus has even suggested that support for SEAL teams, a Hampton Roads mainstay and critical instrument in combating terrorism, may be increased.

On the negative side of the ledger, it's possible that with a new focus on Asia, some Navy forces may be shifted to San Diego or Hawaii. However, we won't know the full impact of these changes until the next Base Realignment and Closure round, likely due in the next two years.

Prospects for local heavy industry are relatively positive. In an email, Newport News Shipbuilding President Matt Mulherin tells me that he's pleased that the Obama administration remains committed to an 11-carrier fleet and that his company looks forward to executing its role in the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan, increased by six ships this year.

Further, Mulherin is adamant that, despite increasing administration pressure to save money on the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), it will be finished on time in 2015, and cost efficiencies will be achieved through "process improvements" rather than pink slips. "Laying off employees is the last step we take," he writes.

Consider coming changes at the Pentagon a tweaking, rather than an overhaul, of American strategic priorities. And the way it looks today, the Navy in Hampton Roads will fare just fine.

Jim Arkedis directs national security work at the Progressive Policy Institute. Email: jarkedis@ppionline.org