Will Defense Department Guidance affect the Region?

Will Defense Department Guidance, affect the Region? Today the President and the Secretary of Defense released the DOD, Defense Strategic Guidance.  The Secretary stated “This country is at a strategic turning point after a decade of war, and therefore, we are shaping a Joint Force for the future that will be smaller and leaner, but will be agile, flexible, ready, and technologically advanced. It will have cutting edge capabilities, exploiting our technological, joint, and networked advantage. It will be led by the highest quality, battle-tested professionals. It will have global presence emphasizing the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East while ensuring our ability to maintain our defense commitments to Europe, and strengthening alliances and partnerships across all regions” http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf 

The study is being used as the guidance for the DOD budgets for the next 10 years. (Four budget cycles)  DOD will cut the budget by $489 billion in 10 years  to be reflected in the Five Year Defense Plan, (FYDP) 263 Billion starting with the  FY 2013 budget, that will be submitted to congress in February.  There were no specifics, just strategic guidance.

Observations; Asia-Pacific and will have priority, the Navy has previously stated they will maintain a 60% west/40% east split of forces.  The Navy is in the process of making this shift.  (When Enterprise is decommissioned there will be 4CVBG’s on the East Coast) Two Squadrons will be moving west to balance Air Wings. Not sure but, it does not appear there will be a reduction below the 11 planned CVN’s.

The Army and Marines will reduce their forces, a total of 80,000 to 100,000 troops. (Fort Eustis will be impacted)

Not stated, but there will be a slowdown of procurement of major programs, probably the F-35 and the LCS. May need to replace Oceana F/A 18 C’s with Super Hornet if F-35 delayed. LCS not planned to come to HR until 2020 at the earliest.

Question, it appears that the Strategy takes the place of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), is the CVN move to Mayport still valid? The secretary did say did there were going to be political sensitivities in many of the decisions, I am sure Florida will continue to push for a CVN if the CVN requirement is removed. Don’t be surprised if a few Norfolk ships are moved to Mayport, if not there will only be 8 ships at Mayport after 2016. (This would be in addition to the 4 ships moving to Spain)

There will be major programs cut, this will not be known until the budget is released.

There is a possibility that units from the Expeditionary Command at Little Creek will changed their status. The mission will be maintained, but could be assigned to reserve units.

Spec Operations Forces will increase in numbers.

Mentioned a smaller Nuke force, could affect new SSBN buy, it was stated,  they will meet the requirement with smaller force.

The secretary expressed concern about the ‘TRIGER’ that could go into effect in 2013 if congress does not take action. This would be an additional $500 Billion in cuts, would bring the total to a potential 1 trillion in cuts, a DOD disaster.

A lot of questions will be answered when the budget is submitted. CVN questions, how many, how many to west coast and will the C VN to Mayport still be planned. Programs to be slowed and programs that will be cut. The force reduction numbers.  A $489 billion cut will give the nation a different Military with different capabilities.

The Secretary stated that the budget would support the military family; the quality of benefits would support the active and retired community.

Correction: All that retire with an Honorable discharge are eligible to apply for unemployment in the state where they live. But adding another 80,000 to 100,000  looking for jobs in the present poor job market, it is going to make it even worse for exiting veterans.

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