Chesapeake, Portsmouth led region in population growth

Chesapeake is leading Hampton Roads in growth and, in a startling turnabout, Portsmouth is rebounding from a decade of shrinking population, data obtained since the 2010 census shows.

Portsmouth grew 0.9 percent between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, outpacing Norfolk and even Virginia Beach, according to estimates released by the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. That followed a decade in which Portsmouth's population fell 5 percent, to about 95,500, although that drop was somewhat exaggerated by an apparent overcount in 2000 at a Coast Guard base.

Growth across Hampton Roads reflected the larger picture in Virginia, which grew an estimated 1.2 percent since spring 2010, and where most of that came in metro areas, said demographer Rebecca Tippett, who worked on the estimates.

The figures may hint at a general desire among people to return to cities and urban areas, Tippett said, but she cautioned against reading too much into what is only a little more than a year's worth of data.

"We need to see a couple more years to really call it a trend," she said.

Suffolk continued to show strong growth, but not as high as the blistering pace it set in the past decade. Its estimated rate of 1.3 percent over 15 months was less than half of its average yearly rate in the 2000s.

The title of fastest-growing city in Hampton Roads belongs to Chesapeake for the time being. New housing appears to have played a large role in its estimated 1.7 percent growth rate, Tippett said.

Mark Woodward, the city's principal planner, said the Cooper Center estimate is in line with what the city has seen the last couple of years, adding that much of its new housing includes apartments and condos.

"Even with the prolonged housing downturn and the sluggish recovery from the recession, we've continued to see small developments," he said.

Portsmouth appears to have benefited more from natural growth, Tippett said. That was reflected in a greater share of early school enrollment and births, she said.

The Cooper Center releases an annual reading of populations after studying changes in housing stock, school enrollment, births, deaths and driver's licenses. The estimates represent official figures and are used for planning, budgeting and revenue sharing purposes.

Dave Forster, 757-446-2627, dave.forster@pilotonline.com