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The Tide, by the measures that matter after six months, is a roaring success. Ridership is higher than Hampton Roads Transit officials expected along the 7.4-mile route. Businesses around the train stops are doing well. People are even beginning to reorient their lives to mass transit.
And The Tide's critics are increasingly lonely.
Norfolk's new trains have attracted an average of 4,642 weekday riders, according to The Pilot's Debbie Messina. Ridership has averaged 4,850 on Saturday; shorter hours on Sunday means the number drops to 2,099.
Businesses have been so eager that they've paid more than $700,000 so that 70,000 employees can ride for free.
As The Pilot's Carolyn Shapiro reported Sunday, some stores near the train line are reporting increased sales and customer traffic since The Tide started rolling.
Amy Wyatt Metzger moved Bean There Coffeehouse to a spot near the MacArthur Square Station in 2010 to take advantage of the train. "For the most part, it has brought a new awareness to downtown and to businesses that were relying solely on their own foot traffic," said Metzger, who said sales are up 20 percent.
Pilot reporters turned up examples of people who have moved closer to train stations or given up a car because they don't need one. Neighborhoods and businesses show new signs of life.
It's been only six months, so the evidence is entirely anecdotal. But it's beginning to look as if the goal of light rail - allowing residents of a major American city to reorient their lives toward public transit - is showing signs of success.
This is a long way from two years ago, when HRT had announced its second annual budget surprise and said the system would be more than $100 million over budget and a year behind schedule.
Philip Shucet, who soon steps down as head of HRT, was brought in to set everything right - the budget, the safety systems, the schedule. After six months of operation, The Tide is showing the wisdom of that hire.
Riders talk about not having to scramble for parking in Downtown Norfolk. They're able to enjoy a newspaper or a book during their morning commute. They talk of getting from one end of the city to the other without the stress of driving and of being able to live steps from transportation, shopping, restaurants, work.
In just six months, the success of The Tide has also shifted the debate beyond the track that runs from Newtown Road to Eastern Virginia Medical School. Norfolk officials are considering where the train ought to run next. And Virginia Beach's cautious leaders are eying an expansion of their own.
The Tide has been so successful that the same folks who clamored for a referendum in Virginia Beach when they thought voters would reject light rail are now demanding the vote be put off.
If the past six months are any indication, a delay will simply give The Tide more time to prove its success.
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Success? Really?
Here are the numbers that really matter to the taxpayers that paid for the Tide:
Total Development Costs: $300,000,000+
Daily Ridership (highly conservative estimate): 5000
Adult Ticket: $1.50
Daily Income (Assume all adult riders, and all pay): $7500
Yearly Income: $2,737,500
Break-Even Point: ~110 years
So, at the current ridership levels, it will take roughly 110 years to recover our initial investment in this project. That doesn't even take into account the costs for maintenance, administration, and potential expansions.
So, if your measure of success is how much money you can drain out of the taxpayers pockets, then this is a roaring success!
Cost comparison the urban interstate.
So James, do you realize that the estimated cost to expand interstate in urban areas is $250,000,000/mile? That includes the cost of condemning land, businesses, homes, apartments and the planning and constructing of new interchanges and the widened highway. So, say ten miles for simplicity, are you willing to spend $2.5 Billion dollars when we already own the ROW for light rail and can build light rail for about $60,000,000/mile, with little disruption because we own the land and little to any condemnation will be required?
Not Urban
I've seen those estimates, for urban areas. The areas usually referenced by those (and it is "up to" $250m/mile) are NYC, DC, Seattle, Baltimore, etc. Virginia Beach is NOT an urban area. It is not even close to being an urban area. It is entirely suburban and rural. The same is true for Chesapeake and Suffolk. Norfolk and Portsmouth are the only urban areas on the southside.
Based on the actual results from the Tides initial construction (7.4 miles long) and the costs already spent ($40 million for $6 million worth of land ... despite the voters), you're looking at another $300+ million in spending to expand it through Virginia Beach. Lets assume ridership doubles because of that (which would be very ambitious), it would costs us ~55 years just to recover that expense (on top of the 55 years to recover the initial expense to build it in Norfolk). Again, that doesn't include maintenance, wages/salaries, and operating costs. In other words: it is a massive drain on tax payer funds, and will continue to be for as long as it exists.
It is for you to judge whether or not it is a success; however, from a financial standpoint, it will never be a success.
Streets don't pay their way, either.
It was never expected that Tide would pay its way in direct revenue. But Neither do streets and highways. Neither do the police and fire departments, or schools. This is why they're all called "public services."
While Va Beach may not have many traditional "downtowns," the challenges of running a city our size are every bit as complex as any urban center.
Streets don't pay their way, either.
It was never expected that Tide would pay its way in direct revenue. But Neither do streets and highways. Neither do the police and fire departments, or schools. This is why they're all called "public services."
While Va Beach may not have many traditional "downtowns," the challenges of running a city our size are every bit as complex as any urban center.
Streets don't pay their way, either.
It was never expected that Tide would pay its way in direct revenue. But Neither do streets and highways. Neither do the police and fire departments, or schools. This is why they're all called "public services."
While Va Beach may not have many traditional "downtowns," the challenges of running a city our size are every bit as complex as any urban center.
Virginia Beach IS an urban
Virginia Beach IS an urban area according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
"Below is a list of urban areas in the United States as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau
# 27 Virginia Beach, VA"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_urban_areas
FACT.
What's your criterion for your assertion that "Virginia Beach is NOT an urban area"?
Would that be your ill-informed opinion? Facts please, not ill-informed opinions.
Thank you.
Check your facts
Wikipedia for the win! Except, it lists Virginia Beach as having 1.3 million residents ... and we have just over 400,000. Check your references before using them. My other response in the other thread gives you the ACTUAL US Census page (which defines "urban" as 2,500 people/square mile). We aren't even close. Try visiting DC or NYC and you will see that urban areas don't have 1 acre housing lots ... or half the city being farmland ... etc.
Facts please!
NYC has Central Park...
which, measuring at 843 acres, amounts to more than a square mile of green space.
I guess you'd say NYC is rural because they have more than 1 square mile of green space?
lol.
Ok, you're correct, not all
Ok, you're correct, not all of Virginia Beach is urban, but along I-264, much of it is, and the condemnation necessary to widen the interstate will push up the cost significanlty, certainly much more than the measely $40 M for ten miles of ROW for the light rail. Further, at each of the stations, redevelopment of transit oriented development with multi use, mid rise buildings, with reduced parking requirements because of access to transit, will add to the commercial tax base, and remove declining light industrial property that is poorly located now given the way the Beach has developed. This high value development, like town center, will add potentially billions in value to the tax base.
So your cavalier comment that light rail will not be financially successful is not necessarily true. It could very well pay for itself over time, and in the meantime, prevent the need to expand I-264 while providing a safe an efficient means to get to work, to school, to shop, to go to the Doctor, and to access entertainment and recreation.