Questions about DOD Strategy

Questions about DOD Strategy; Last Thursday the Secretary of Defense announced the ‘Defense Budget Priorities and Choices’. The document described the DOD plan to reduce the Defense budget in the next 10 years by $480 Billion. This plan supports the new National Strategy. The study describes the ‘Force of the Future’ and describes the means that would be taken to obtain the force needed to carry out the new strategy.

Since the guidance was published there have been many questions, criticism and concerns. The President’s budget that will be released on 13 February should address some of the specifies, but the budget will only specifically address the Five Year Defense Plan (FYDP) and $259 Billion of the $480 Billion to be cut. Congress will get the chance to ask questions at hearings on the budget and I am sure they will be asking for more detail and will want more information on the Strategy, Specific Cuts and BRAC.

New Strategy: Rebalance the Force structure towards Asia-Pacific and Middle East; defeat a major adversely in one theater and denying aggression elsewhere; no longer size active forces to conduct large and protracted  stability operations. Many leaders questioned the Strategy and will be asking for answers in the hearings.  Rep Buck McKeon (R Calif), Chairman House Armed Services Committee said (Navy Times) the proposal ‘would put the nation at risk-to achieve these reductions, the president has abandoned the defense structure that has protected America for two generations—These cuts reflect Presidents Obama’s vision of an America that is weakened, not strengthened by our men and women in uniform.’ Rep Duncan Hunter (R Calif) (San Diego Union-Tribune) “the whole military is close to its tipping point—This budget begins the process of putting in motion deep cuts to our national defense, Instead of calculating our security investments based on existing and emerging threats---this plan ignores the full scope of danger facing U.S. and global security”. Rep Randy Forbes (VA-4) (Statement) “---embraces weakness by a thousand cuts—the administration is not building a military that is lean, agile and flexible. It is dismantling our nation’s greatest strategic asset and accepting grave risk in the process”.

Specific Cuts; The document gives the number to be cut, but does not state where the forces will come from, nor does it give numbers specific for slowdowns (JSF). The budget covers 2013 and the following 4 year plan (FYDP), Congress will probably ask for the entire strategic plan of present and future cuts (by location). Navy, Retire 7 cruisers, retire 2 LSD’s, and accelerate retirement of some existing ships, slow pace of building new ships. Reduce 2 LCS and 8 High Speed Vessels in the FYDP; delay by 2 years new Ohio Class sub; Air Force: disestablish 6 tactical-air fighter squadrons, 1 training squadron, retiring 27 C-5A’s, 65 C-130’s and divesting 38 C-27’s, terminate Global Hawk Block 30; Army, reduce the active force by 80,000 (Aprox 10,000 from Europe) delay Army Ground Combat Vehicle; Marines, reduce the active force by 20,000. In addition  all three variants of the JSF procurement will be slowed.  Health Care, TRICARE issues will be discussed in detail.

Not defined in the Strategy but asked for, were 2 rounds of Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC). BRAC is created by Congress, a bipartisan commission that takes DOD recommendation for closure and consolidation. After a study (Visit/hearings) the commission makes recommendations to the Secretary of Defense and the President. (The entire list is approved or no partial approval) There has been a lot of opposition to the BRAC proposal. Senator Lieberman said NO BRAC, Senator Levin (Daily Press) Chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee says “until the United States shut down some bases in Europe—I am not going to be able to support closing bases in America”. Rep Scott Rigell VA-2, “We don’t know the scope or mission of the proposed BRAC commission, and I need that information to determine our next step. If a commission is established, it should consider contracting our forces and bases in Europe.” The Washington Post announced,” VA braces for defense cuts, base closures, Virginia officials are preparing to defend the state’s military installations from cutbacks.” The Army Chief, General Odrerno, said European bases needed to be looked at. He felt the Army had done a good job in the past getting rid of excess capacity in the U.S. The Air Force Chief of Staff, General Schwartz, felt there was a need for BRAC, there was a requirement for closure and consolidation. In an interview with Defense News, Rep Adam Smith (D- WA) ranking member of the House Armed service Committee was asked how he thought the DOD BRAC proposal would be received by Congress. “I don’t know if Congress is going to get on board with it, but it needs to be done. We are making significant changes in force structure. I think without question we’re going to have to do some realignment. I don’t know how any person looking at the strategy and looking at the changes coming down could conclude otherwise”.

Hearings will start in a couple of weeks, it will be interesting to watch the process.

Affect of DOD Priorities and Choices

Affect of DOD Priorities and Choices; Today the Secretary of Defense Panetta and the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dempsey released the DOD Budget Priorities and Choices study.  The study was a follow up to the announcement of the “Nations New Strategy”. The study expanded the guidance and gave the DOD plan for the ‘Force of the Future’. The DOD guidance was driven by the end of the war and the congressional requirement to reduce the DOD budget by $480 Billion in 10 years, with a reduction of $259 Billion in the next 5 years. The areas that will impact the Navy and the local area;

-Increase role of Special Forces

-Maintain the aircraft carrier fleet at 11 ships and 10 airwings

-Maintain the big-deck amphibious fleet

-Budgeted to forward station Littoral Combat ships in Singapore and patrol craft in Bahrain

-Design changes to increase cruise missile capacity of future Virginia-class sub

-upgrade radars for tactical aircraft and ships

-Improve air to air missiles

To ensure sufficient resources, DOD will reduce the number of ships, slow the building of others and accelerate the retirement of existing ships.

-Retiring 7 cruisers early (probably some number from Norfolk)

-Retiring 2 LSD’s (Could come from area)

-Accelerate retirement of 4 Norfolk FFG’s (Possible)

-Slip outside Five Year Defense Plan FYDP, large deck Amphib, 1 Virginia class submarine

-Reduce 2 LCS outside FYPD and 8 High Speed Vessels by 8

-Slow down the JSF buy in the FYDP

Although there are no major planned reductions in the guidance there are local reductions already stated (Enterprise decom, 4 ships to Spain, 2 squadrons to west coast and the possible CVN to Mayport). All reductions will add to the ‘Trickle Down’ loss of assists to the local economy. Will not know the full impact of all losses until the budget is released in February.

The Secretary also announced that DOD is going to ask Congress to convene a BRAC. This is a real unknown; whenever a BRAC is discussed Oceana is mentioned. The City of Virginia Beach and Oceana have made major steps to eliminate concerns of BRAC 2005. In the present climate and the apparent lack of any facility that is capable of accomplishing the Oceana mission, I would not anticipate Oceana being on a BRAC list.

The study listed an area that will affect many in the region; Health Care---

-Further increasing and adding new enrollment fees for retirees under age 65 in the TRICARE program, using a tiered approach based on retired pay that requires senior-grade retires to pay more and junior-grade retirees less

-Establish a new enrollment fee for TRICARE-for-life program for retirees 65 and older.

-Implementing additional increase in pharmacy co-pays in a manner that increases incentives for use of generics and mail order.

The next step is for congress to review and evaluate the guidance and the submitted budget. This is a very critical time in the evaluation of the Strategy, although there are no drastic cuts locally, the massive cuts in Army and Marine forces, major programs and the increased emphasis’ on Asia and the Mid East-  all must be thoroughly evaluated.

Defense Authorization Bill--Mistake

Defense Authorization Bill---Mistake; Last week the Pilot reported that a recent approved defense authorization included a provision that would force public shipyards (Norfolk Naval Shipyard & Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Bremerton WA) to take over the job of nuclear refueling aircraft carriers. Presently Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) is the only shipyard performing carrier refueling. (This is a four year process occurring about half way through the 50 year life of a CVN).  NNS has completed four CVN complex overhauls and refueling and the next ship, USS Lincoln will be moving into the yard soon.

Congress committees say the language was a mistake, a potentially big loss for NNS and the region, and the House Armed Services Committee spokesman says they are working to reverse the provision. They admit it was a mistake and should not have happened. A question I would like to ask, who wrote the language for the provision? The Navy or a committee member who did it for a reason. (Give Bremerton the capability)? The bill that will be submitted to Congress in two weeks SHOULD make the change.

In yesterdays SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE it was reported that, The Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Greenert said –the Defense Department’s shift in focus to Asia and the Pacific bodes well for San Diego, the principal home of the Pacific Fleet, and confirmed that a third aircraft carrier probably will be assigned to San Diego Bay by 2016. (Where is it going to come from?)

Last week aboard USS Enterprise Secretary of Defense Panetta announced that the Navy would maintain 11 CVN’s. (Enterprise will be decommissioned next year, USS Ford will be commissioned in a couple of years, bring the number back to 11).

There are questions that need to be answered, Mayport CVN homeporting,  Third CVN to San Diego, Navy plan on numbers of CVN’s at Norfolk and which CVN is going to replace USS in Washington when it comes back to refuel ??? It is apparent that the Navy has a strategy, need answers, how will new strategy affect the region?

DOD Budget--Big Picture??

DOD Budget—Big Picture??;  When the President and the Secretary of Defense outlined the Nations new Strategy that would guide the future of American forces on 5 January, many questions were left unanswered. The specifics of the $480 Billion cut over 10 years will be answered soon. (Secretary Panetta is scheduled to release the first details on January 26 and the complete budget on 6 February) It is easy to discuss how the pending cuts will affect local interest, but it is extremely important to ask the ‘Big’ question ‘How will the Strategy effect the Military’s capability to defend the Nation?’ The Strategy focuses on the Asia-Pacific, reduces ground forces, cancels some programs and slows other programs. Various Congressmen have expressed reservations with the new strategy.

The Daily Press reported Rep Randy Forbes comments “He agreed that U.S. forces should pay more attention to China---but he suggested that the administration’s review was to shallow and based on generalities. ---Unfortunately, this review dangerously fails to identify risks assumed by drastic budget cuts.---This laundry list of vague ‘priorities’ is not a strategy for superiority.  It is instead a menu for mediocrity.” The USA Today reported Rep Buck McKeon, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee concern, “This is a lead-from behind strategy for a left behind America---The president has packaged our retreat from the world in the guise of a new strategy to mask his divestment of our military and national defense.” There are many who say the cuts should be bigger, congress will soon have the opportunity to evaluate both sides of the concerns.  The deputy undersecretary of defense for strategy, plans and forces, Kathleen Hicks, said (in American Forces Press, 10 Jan) “The biggest risk of any strategy is uncertainty of the future---we don’t know exactly where threats will emerge---we don’t know where opportunities will emerge and whether we will be able to see them in time to take advantage of them--- we think we have brought down risk that we had at the highest levels of conflict.” There will be interesting hearings starting in February when the DOD budget is reviewed.

Congress will need to evaluate many uncertainties that are mentioned in the press daily.  The tensions with Iran, unrest in Syria and uncertainties in Egypt and Libya. We continually read of the Military growth of China. We can’t forget Russia; last week Russian Press reported a Russian Task Force led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov visited the Syrian port of Tartus. Russia has a major modernization program of major Capital ships that is scheduled to be complete by 2020.

In addition to the Strategy the budget will address many ‘People ‘ issues, TRICARE and retirement. I have been involved in cuts in the past that have not been obvious until after the fact. The cuts in operation, training and maintenance money, will have a big impact on the forces ability to accomplish their mission.

By the Way---Yesterday the Washington Times reported “New Navy budget may risk plans for Carriers”. The article discussed an unconfirmed report of a possible reduction in the number of carriers and a delay in the construction from 5 to 7 years. Nothing confirmed ‘rumors’ but any change in the carrier force will have an impact on the region.

More Noise at Oceana, more Facts

More Noise at Oceana, Facts; There was an article in Sunday’s Pilot discussing the increase of Jet noise at Oceana. As the article stated, noise has increased, and it will continue until late summer. The noise will increase periodically through the period when squadrons prepare to go aboard carriers.

FACTS; Fentress is the primary field used by Oceana squadrons for Day/Night Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP). The field will be closed until late summer.

-Oceana has the capability (facility) to accomplish the FCLP mission. (Runways, carrier landing aids) There are conditions at Oceana that are less than optimum, but acceptable, for FCLP; No carrier deck lighting on any runway, (available at Fentress), ambient light, higher flight pattern and conflict with the normal landing pattern. (Oceana has been used successfully when Fentress has been closed in the past)

-There are 4 runways at Oceana; 2 parallel NE/SW, 5/23 and 2 parallel NW/SE 32/14 runways. For over a year one of the NE/SW  runways has been closed for repair. (Presently 5L expects to be open in April). Normally the primary runways are the NE/SW( 5/23.) It is hard to do FCLP on the single runway and still conduct normal operations.

- The other runways, 32/14 (NW/SE) are normally used 14 percent of the year. The Navy has been using this runway as the primary runway, while construction on the NE/SW(5/23) runways, causing noise to many who do not hear the noise with such frequency. The departure to the North from runways 32, causes more noise over the Great Neck area.

- FCLP normally has multiple aircraft in the pattern causing the pattern to be extended. This causes noise in the London Bridge area when FCLP is being conducted on the NW/32 runway. The area just south of Hilltop and Lynnheaven Mall area is impacted when the NE(5) runway is used. (The NE(5) will be used more frequently when construction on 5L is compete.)

-Regardless of which runways are being used, people living close (within 2 ½ miles of the field) will be affected by the increase of FCLP at Oceana.

-The Navy is using fields in South Carolina and Florida to supplement Oceana for FCLP during the Fentress closing, this will take some of the FCLP requirement from Oceana.

Bottom Line; There is going to be increased noise around Oceana while local squadrons are conducting FCLP. The area affected will change according to the runway in use, but Oceana FCLP is a definite requirement until the repair at Fentress is complete.

Will Defense Department Guidance affect the Region?

Will Defense Department Guidance, affect the Region? Today the President and the Secretary of Defense released the DOD, Defense Strategic Guidance.  The Secretary stated “This country is at a strategic turning point after a decade of war, and therefore, we are shaping a Joint Force for the future that will be smaller and leaner, but will be agile, flexible, ready, and technologically advanced. It will have cutting edge capabilities, exploiting our technological, joint, and networked advantage. It will be led by the highest quality, battle-tested professionals. It will have global presence emphasizing the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East while ensuring our ability to maintain our defense commitments to Europe, and strengthening alliances and partnerships across all regions” http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf 

The study is being used as the guidance for the DOD budgets for the next 10 years. (Four budget cycles)  DOD will cut the budget by $489 billion in 10 years  to be reflected in the Five Year Defense Plan, (FYDP) 263 Billion starting with the  FY 2013 budget, that will be submitted to congress in February.  There were no specifics, just strategic guidance.

Observations; Asia-Pacific and will have priority, the Navy has previously stated they will maintain a 60% west/40% east split of forces.  The Navy is in the process of making this shift.  (When Enterprise is decommissioned there will be 4CVBG’s on the East Coast) Two Squadrons will be moving west to balance Air Wings. Not sure but, it does not appear there will be a reduction below the 11 planned CVN’s.

The Army and Marines will reduce their forces, a total of 80,000 to 100,000 troops. (Fort Eustis will be impacted)

Not stated, but there will be a slowdown of procurement of major programs, probably the F-35 and the LCS. May need to replace Oceana F/A 18 C’s with Super Hornet if F-35 delayed. LCS not planned to come to HR until 2020 at the earliest.

Question, it appears that the Strategy takes the place of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), is the CVN move to Mayport still valid? The secretary did say did there were going to be political sensitivities in many of the decisions, I am sure Florida will continue to push for a CVN if the CVN requirement is removed. Don’t be surprised if a few Norfolk ships are moved to Mayport, if not there will only be 8 ships at Mayport after 2016. (This would be in addition to the 4 ships moving to Spain)

There will be major programs cut, this will not be known until the budget is released.

There is a possibility that units from the Expeditionary Command at Little Creek will changed their status. The mission will be maintained, but could be assigned to reserve units.

Spec Operations Forces will increase in numbers.

Mentioned a smaller Nuke force, could affect new SSBN buy, it was stated,  they will meet the requirement with smaller force.

The secretary expressed concern about the ‘TRIGER’ that could go into effect in 2013 if congress does not take action. This would be an additional $500 Billion in cuts, would bring the total to a potential 1 trillion in cuts, a DOD disaster.

A lot of questions will be answered when the budget is submitted. CVN questions, how many, how many to west coast and will the C VN to Mayport still be planned. Programs to be slowed and programs that will be cut. The force reduction numbers.  A $489 billion cut will give the nation a different Military with different capabilities.

The Secretary stated that the budget would support the military family; the quality of benefits would support the active and retired community.

Correction: All that retire with an Honorable discharge are eligible to apply for unemployment in the state where they live. But adding another 80,000 to 100,000  looking for jobs in the present poor job market, it is going to make it even worse for exiting veterans.

Veteran Jobs; Few in Hampton Roads

Veteran Jobs; Few in Hampton Roads

There has been a lot in the Press in the past few weeks about the efforts to assist Veterans in obtaining jobs. There are initiatives being offered business’s to hire veterans. (The President signed legislation in November that created tax breaks for companies that hire jobless veterans) The problem is “There are No jobs”. The Pilot reported last week that in the Hampton Roads (HR) areas there were only 5,515 new jobs created this year. (Many business’s had turn over’s, but new created jobs are needed to support the Job requirement) College and high school graduates join the job market each year, but in the HR area 16,000 Navy personnel get out of the service locally ever year. (The Air Force and Army locally add thousands). Of the 16,000 that get out of the Navy 3,000 retire with over 20 years and receive benefits, which include, retired pay based on rate, time of service and TRICARE (Medical).  For those who get out with less the 20 years (The 13,000 local Navy sailors), NO benefits—pay or medical. Neither group receives unemployment. (I question if veterans numbers are included in any unemployment reports?) The New York Times reported that former Guard and Reserve vet’s unemployment is “running 20 to 40 percent in some cases--- and the numbers for vet’s ages 20 to 24 has averaged 30 percent, up from 20 % a year ago.

There are no easy answers, veteran unemployment is a reality, and I am sure when the new budget (FY 2012) is announced, even more Vets’ will join the unemployment group. Even before more cuts are announced all services are presently cutting their numbers. (Navy 3,000 and Marines 15,000) The services conducted an Enlisted Retention Board (results announced in November) which identified personnel that would be separated from the service prior to the end of their enlistment.  The Navy, locally, is working with this group to assist them in their transition to civilian life.

There is no simple fix, more veterans will be getting out and facing the very difficult job market.  Many have families; a big problem that will grow with the downsizing of the Military, maybe it’s time for direct support of those getting out to help them get through a transition period, prior to finding employment. Can anything be done to allow the Vet’s to be eligible for unemployment?

Headlines in NT Times, “A War Ends, Young Veterans Return to Scant Jobs”, need to find an answer.

Mayport money in 2012 budget

Mayport Money in 2012 budget

Yesterday the Defense Authorization Conference Report was concluded and the $14.9 million for the next planed phase of a CVN move to Mayport was included. The Pilot stated that the road project was not part of the carrier effort.  “House and senate negotiators stated in their report that the Mayport Naval Station project has merit regardless of whether a carrier is homeported there”. The Florida delegation (Crenshaw, Nelson, Rubio) put a different ‘Spin’ on the report.  Crenshaw “The House and Senate agreement is another win for Mayport and means military construction projects needed to homeport a nuclear carrier at the base will keep moving forward”.  Nelson “Despite repeated attempts by some lawmakers to block improvements needed to bring a nuclear carrier to Mayport, we’re still on track”.

The $14.9 is for P503 road improvement project which has been a part of the CVN move project. The project was needed to support P502, $30,933 parking garage which is needed when the Controlled Industrial/Ship Maintenance/Support Facility is to be constructed in the present major parking lot. This is the plan that the Navy briefed last year, not sure it has changed, but after visiting Mayport I wonder if a road is a high priority project. If the CVN does not go to Mayport (in 2019), there will only be 8 ships assigned by 2016, congress needs to be on the same page. The CNO is presently evaluating the CVN move, before any more money is spent at Mayport it would be better to wait for the Navy study to be complete.

The same bill permitted fee increases for Tricare fees, wouldn’t it be better to put Mayport money towards the Tricare account, take care of the troops and their families??

More Ships for Mayport ??

More ships for Mayport??

The Navy Times (4 Dec) reported the recently approved Senate authorization bill called for the “Navy to study whether to move more destroyers to Mayport, Fla, to offset the scrapping of frigate, which is winnowing the number of ships homeported there-----“ (The Bill is headed to the conference-committee with the House) Any decision to move destroyers would impact the region, the ships would come the those presently homported at NAVSTA Norfolk.

In 2008 the Navy conducted a Study addressing the Mayport basing issue. The issue was, with the loss of JFK, the projected decommission of FFG’s and the projection of only 8 ships being assigned to Mayport by 2016.  The study evaluated 13 options which included a variety of classes of ships being assigned at the Mayport facility. The Navy decided the best alternative was to move a CVN to Mayport, the move to be completed by 2014.  The option is still the Navy’s preferred option, however, the date for the move is now no sooner than 2019. The Mayport concern, “The gap could force the Mayport ship repair industry into cutbacks and layoffs, a possibility that concerns Senator Nelson (FL)—who is pressing the Navy for some time for a plan.” The Navy Times went on to say the Senators amendment aims to “simply require the Navy to take a look at whether there are any options and what are the feasibility of those options?” There should be NO surprise, once the CVN move date was delayed the Mayport basing issue became very critical. The Mayport base is essential, and the capability of homeporting ships must be maintained. It was apparent to many; the CVN move was not the best of the 13 options evaluated to solve the Mayport basing issue.

The Navy is presently conducting an Environmental Assessment to base Littoral Combat ships at Mayport. I am sure Mayport will be the base for the LCS, will the industrial base be able to survive until the first LCS arrives?

The CVN move to Mayport is still alive, money for the Mayport move is in the same Defense authorization bill.

For those who live around Oceana, you didn’t have to read the Pilot to realize there is going to be increased flying at Oceana. Don’t pay any attention to the maps in the Pilot, the patterns are going to go longer then the maps show. The Navy has No alternative, the increased use of Oceana will last to the summer. Yes there will be more noise.

More Defense Cuts: Local Impacts?

More Defense Unknowns: Local/State Impact?

We know the Defense Department (DOD) is planning a $480 Billion cut in the DOD budget in the next 10 years. Now that the Super Committee has failed there are many questions; will the ‘trigger’ (Another 600 Billion in DOD cuts) go into effect in 2013 or will Congress change the rules? Regardless of which option, the region will be affected, the degree is the question. I am sure the Navy has different contingency plans for all options.  We will hear many rumors of the ‘what if’s’ in the next months, changes will happen.

What we know, scheduled losses for the region; Air Force Langley loss of 500 positions, Decommission of USS Enterprise, 4 Ships to Spain, 2 F-18 squadrons to Lemoore, no LCS. The Navy announced last week they are going to ‘lay off ‘ 3,000 sailors, I am sure many will be from this area.  Congress is finalizing the 2012 budget, and presently the senate has reduced the DOD request by $21 Billion.

The $450 Billion cuts that DOD is planning in the next 10 years will be known in February, with the submission of the 2013 budget.  Although unknown there will definitely be DOD cuts that will have a negative impact to the region.

The Super Committee failed, will the ‘Trigger’   go into effect and additional $600 Billion (Total of $1 Trillion) be cut from the DOD budget?  Secretary Panetta has called the ‘trigger’ a “Doomsday” scenario for the Pentagon. What will be the ‘real’ impact on DOD is unknown, many conjectures, reducing the number of Carrier Battle Groups,  reduce number of F-35’s, and a reduction of all the Military forces. Some predictions say, the Military will be the size it was pre World War 2.  Whatever happens it does not appear as automatic as it was prior to the announcement, talk of loopholes, intense lobbying and political dealings. Regardless of the ultimate decision on the ‘trigger’ DOD will probably be forced to take further cuts.

The impact; the State, the third largest reciprocate of DOD spending and the regions  45% of Gross output comes from DOD, will be impacted, the amount of the reductions is the question. If capabilities, procurement or force structure is reduced, Virginia and the region will be impacted further.

If the State/Region DOD spending is reduced there will be a negative economic growth to the State/Region. The amount of decline is unknown, not a ‘Doomsday’ for the region but, as stated in the State of the Region, Hampton Roads 2011 besides the obvious, shipbuilding and the repair industry others will be affected. “Suffers will include a wide range of merchants and employees who sell everything from automobiles to pizza.  LOCAL (STATE) governments will experience Declining Revenues and this will Impact schools, law enforcement and a host of other services and activities”.