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Tom Robinson

Tom Robinson is a sports columnist for The Virginian-Pilot. He also writes about the NFL. Read Tom's columns and articles here.

NFL's not big on November predictability

    Tough times these days for those who would pick NFL games -- not even considering the point spreads -- for their amusement. It gets this way every season about now when the Injured Reserve lists overflow with with names and the fields littered with untested fill-ins who go on to affect the results in unpredictable ways.

    I got nine of 15 right last week, totally whiffing -- unlike my genius colleague Molinaro -- on the Redskins, who dumped Denver, and the Cowboys who, and I quote, were supposed to "easily" win in Green Bay. What? The Cowboys always zig when you think they're going to zag. Such a skittery bunch. Elsewhere, I may very well be back on the Titans' bandwagon now that they've won three straight and they think they can win their last seven and still make the playoffs. Why the heck not? It's mid-November in the NFL, attrition, frustration and boredom have struck, and your guess is as good as mine.

A record of 98-46 (68 pct) for the season heading into tonight's Dolphins-Panthers game, as the entire league is back in action now that the last of the byes has gone bye-bye.

Thursday night:

Panthers (4-5) over Dolphins (4-5): I'm a Dolphins guy, but losing RB Ronnie Brown for the season has got to hurt.

Sunday:

 

Cowboys (6-3) over Redskins (3-6): Sorry, the Skins don't beat Denver last week unless Kyle Orton gets hurt and can't play, which is exactly what happened.

Ravens (5-4) over Colts (9-0): Indy has won its last three by four, three and a miraculous one point. The 18-game winning streak taps out here.

Lions (1-8) over Browns (1-8): Roar oh roar you mighty Lions!

Packers (5-4) over 49ers (4-5): Aaron Rodgers, the second QB drafted (No. 24) in 2005, and the Pack prevail over '05's top overall pick, QB Alex Smith.

Jaguars (5-4) over Bills (3-6): A chance for resurgent Jacksonville, at home against tumultuous Buffalo, to really announce it is back in the thick of the AFC wildcard chase.

Steelers (6-3) over Chiefs (2-7): Pittsburgh can afford no "traps" as it hopes Cincinnati slips up in the AFC North.

Vikings (8-1) over Seahawks (3-6): Another reason Minnesota's so hard to handle -- Visanthe Shiancoe, out of the MEAC's Morgan State, is tied for second among tight ends with six touchdown catches. He had a career-high seven all of last season.

Giants (5-4) over Falcons (5-4): Intriguing, very important game to both teams. Nod to New York, coming off a bye, and because Atlanta's such a poor road team (1-4).

Saints (9-0) over Bucs (1-8): Some people think New Orleans will get taken down, looking ahead to New England next week. Those people would be wrong.

Cardinals (6-3) over Rams (1-8): Perhaps closer than you might think. Rams are 1-3 in their last four, but with losses by three and five to playoff contenders Jacksonville and New Orleans.

Chargers (6-3) over Broncos (6-3): One of the hottest beats one of the coldest in this tussle for the AFC West lead, and handily if Denver QB Kyle Orton can't play.

Patriots (6-3) over Jets (4-5): Nobody's better at letting noise, discussion and flack of all sorts fall aside than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Bengals (7-2) over Raiders (2-7): Newly installed Oakland QB Bruce Gradkowski, the Univ. of Toledo flash, is red meat to ravenous Bengals defense.

Eagles (5-4) over Bears (4-5): Chicago can win this at home for sure, but thinking pick-throwing Jay Cutler can lead a team to victory right now seems a little ridiculous.

Monday night:

Titans (3-6) over Texans (5-4): Suddenly, Tennessee is whapping people, 35-19 on average over the last three games. Going with the hotness here.

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Hunter the Punter scores big

 

Washington Redskins punter Hunter Smith iwas named the NFL's special teams player of the week for his 35-yard touchdown pass last Sunday that helped upset the Denver Broncos 27-17 at FedEx Field.

 

It was the second pass of Smith's career, but the first completion. What's more notable, though, is keen-minded Redskins fans will remember Smith scored on an 8-yard touchdown run in the Redskins opening day loss to the New York Giants. This, then, makes Smith the first NFL specialist to ever run AND pass for a TD in the same season.

 

Pretty cool all around.

 

 

 

 

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Lining them up

    What would I have done? Why, punted, of course, 100 times out of 100. OK, maybe 98 out of 100.

    Don’t miss the larger point of New England’s 35-34 loss to the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, however: the Patriots had the Colts beaten in Indianapolis, and it took coach Bill Belichick’s really risky ploy that backfired at the end to open the window for Peyton Manning and the boys.

    That doesn’t mean I can jump the Pats (6-3) over the Colts (9-0) in this edition of The Pilot’s weekly Power Rankings. I’m just saying, even though New England is pretty much out of the home-field race for the playoffs, I’d hardly  be selling my Patriots’ stock, that’s all, even if they weren’t my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl.

    To this week’s top 10, where the top dogs have been settled in for a while:

1.    (Last week 1) New Orleans Saints (9-0): The high-scoring Saints (36.8 a game) survived their little blip – 28-23 over the St. Louis Rams – and should have a gimme this week in Tampa Bay before the Patriots visit on the 30th.

2.    (2) Indianapolis Colts (9-0): Yet another Peyton Manning milestone; he’s passed for at least 20 touchdowns in a dozen consecutive seasons. That ties Brett Favre for the longest such streak all-time.

3.    (3) Minnesota Vikings (8-1): Adrian Peterson will have to make up 174 yards on Tennessee’s Chris Johnson if he’s going to win another rushing title. Peterson’s at 917 yards on 181 carries, nearly his exact pace of 2008.

4.    (5) New England Patriots (6-3): A priority for the Pats the rest of the way should be improving their pass rush. They’re 26th in the league in sacks-per-pass attempt; last season they finished 13th.

5.    (6) Cincinnati Bengals (7-2): In Cincy’s first victory over Pittsburgh, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was sacked once and completed 71 percent of his throws. Last week, four sacks and 50 percent. This defense is good and getting better.

6.    (4) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3): Sunday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first in nine regular-season home games dating to last season. That was the second-longest home streak behind Indianapolis’ string of 11.

7.    (Not ranked) San Diego Chargers (6-3):  Four-in-a-row San Diego has averaged 6 ½ yards per play during its streak – up nearly a yard. Better pass protection has been big; five sacks in four games, 15 in the first five.

8.    (8) Dallas Cowboys (6-3): I think they’re pretty good, but as usual, it’s hard to trust the ‘Boys, who were whacked 17-7 by Green Bay. They better watch their step; there’s a wicked December schedule on deck.

9.    (NR) Arizona Cardinals (6-3): Just a real interesting team – 4-0 on the road, 5-1 in their last six, quarterback Kurt Warner averaging 279 yards and two touchdowns a game. No easy out, these guys.

10.    (10) Houston Texans (5-4): Coming off their bye, Texans need to take care of business at home against suddenly hot Tennessee before bringing Indianapolis to town on the 29th for a game critical to their wildcard hunt.

Dropped out: Denver Broncos (6-3), Atlanta Falcons (5-4).

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Broncos' "Virginia connection" has grown thin

Last fall I spent a couple days in Denver to do a story on the Broncos' "Virginia" connection, i.e. the half-dozen players on that roster who were from the Norfolk area or who played college football in Virginia. Well, typical of the Not For Long nature of the NFL, that Virginia connection is down to one active player -- wide receiver Eddie Royal, the second-year speedster out of Virginia Tech.

 

Chesapeake's Carlton Powell, a defensive tackle from Virginia Tech, was released this season but recently returned to Denver's practice squad.

 

Norfolk's Jack Williams, a defensive back from Booker T. Washington, was waived last week when the Broncos signed graybeard Ty Law. He was quickly signed by the Detroit Lions.

 

Defensive end John Enbelberger from Virginia Tech was released.

 

Long-snapper Mike Leach from William and Mary was released and is now snapping for the Arizona Cardinals.

 

Cornerback Dre' Bly from Chesapeake was released and is now with the San Francisco 49ers.

 

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This just in from FedEx Field

    You're in luck if you're outside FedEx Field right now and have a big piece of cardboard and a Sharpie in your car. You still have time to turn those tools into a "Fire The Owner" sign again and display it at today's Redskins-Denver Broncos game.

    The Redskins this morning issued a statement revising their banishment of signs a couple a weeks ago, a move taken as a desperate attempt to mute the anti-Dan Snyder sentiment erupting among the team's fan base.

    The statement read in part, “We have no intention of trying to control our fans’ varied ways of expressing their views on the Redskins organization and the team’s performance,” said David Donovan, the team’s Chief Operating Officer, who has overall responsibility for the stadium.

   Said Snyder:  “We’ve disappointed our fans so far this season, and I’m as disappointed as they are. I understand that some fans want to express their feelings with signs and they should do so, as long as they stay within the boundaries of good taste and don’t block the view of other fans.”

 

 

 

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NFL pickin' on a hunker-down Thursday

    I'll take tonight's NFL game -- Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers -- as a prompt to get the entire weekend's picks in on this wet, windy and waterlogged day good for nothing but being thankful for hip-waders and roofing shingles.

    Going 8-5 last week -- no thanks to the Packers collapsing in Tampa Bay, give me a break -- puts me at 89-40 (69 percent) for the season. That the number can't be rounded up to 70 percent hints at a troubling gradual decline I will aim to rectify post-haste, whatever that means.

And so, onward. (Byes this week, New York Giants, Houston Texans)

 

 

Broncos (6-2) over Redskins (2-6): Denver's two-game losing streak ends under the healing hand of poor, poor Washington.

Patriots (6-2) over Colts (8-0): If I keep picking against Indianapolis, I'm bound to be right eventually. Right? Clear the Sunday night schedule for this titanic clash, though: Colts have won a league-best 109 games since 2000. New England is second with 108.

 49ers (3-5) over Bears (4-4): San Fran ceases a four-game skid against a disappointing team that's been bad (1-3) on the road.

Steelers (6-2) over Bengals (6-2): I believe more in Pittsburgh than Cincinnati, what can I say? Note: The Steelers' five-game run of scoring 27-plus points is the longest such streak in their history.

Cowboys (6-2) over Packers (4-4): Tony Romo's been at the helm for 13 straight November victories, the longest November success rate for a QB in 59 years. He should easily make it 14.

Falcons (5-3) over Panthers (3-5): Atlanta's Michael Turner became the first Falcon to run in two TDs from 30 yards or more in a game (30, 58) last week against your Washington Redskins.

Chiefs (1-7) over Raiders (2-6): I know personally one Raider fan, an otherwise sane individual, who will watch this. You don't explain that kind of loyalty. You just sit back and marvel.

Cardinals (5-3) over Seahawks (3-5): Kurt Warner -- 5 TD passes last week against Chicago, a week after tossing five picks against Carolina -- feasts again I reckon.

Vikings (7-1) over Lions (1-7): Interesting stat, perhaps only to me -- Minnesota has scored in 29 of its 32 quarters this season.

Jets (4-4) over Jaguars (4-4): Derek Cox, the William and Mary cornerback Jacksonville drafted in the third round, is tied for second among NFL rookies with two interceptions.

Chargers (5-3) over Eagles (5-3): Philly, in California, needs it to keep pace with Atlanta in NFC wildcard chase, alas, won't get it.

Saints (8-0) over Rams (1-7): Get this; the last time these teams met in 2007, St. Louis scored 34 straight points to win its first game of the year. These Lambs have scored 77 this entire season.

Titans (2-6) over Bills (3-5): Picked with the Titans and they started losing, picked against them and they started winning. What the heck -- back on the Tennessee wagon.

Dolphins (3-5) over Buccaneers (1-7): A coasting Miami victory in this "battle" of Florida.

Monday night:

Ravens (4-4) over Browns (1-7): A nation gets to tune in -- for no more than five minutes, hopefully -- to gawk at the mess that is Cleveland.

 

 

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Two Powerful clashes up next

    As the New Orleans Saints steam toward the game with the most potential to upend their perfect season -- Monday, Nov. 30 at home vs. New England -- eyes turn this week to two top-10 power ranking clashes: No. 6 Cincinnati at No. 4 Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon, and No. 5 New England at No. 2 Indianapolis on Sunday night.

    In any event, the upper-crust of the NFL has pretty much shaken out by this, the halfway point of the season. Here's one take on where the power rests:

   

1. (Last week 1) New Orleans Saints (8-0): With all the talk of Drew Brees, don't forget running back Pierre Thomas has five TDs and averages 5.5 yards per carry, fourth among backs with at least 80 carries.

2. (2) Indianapolis Colts (8-0): An enviable combination -- tight end Dallas Clark with 60 receptions (second in league), WR Reggie Wayne with 59. And three-fourths of Wayne's catches have gone for first downs. That's a valuable guy.

3. (3) Minnesota Vikings (7-1): Believe it or not, Brett Favre leads the league in lowest interception percentage (1.15).

4. (6) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): Now that the Steelers can run (115 per game), beating them got a lot harder.

5. (5) New England Patriots (6-2): They're in at least the top 18 of every offensive category but one -- 26th in red-zone scoring percentage. And you have to believe they'll get the straightened out.

6. (7) Cincinnati Bengals (6-2): Well-balanced Bengals have a rushing TD and a passing TD in six of their eight games.

7. (4) Denver Broncos (6-2): Bad news: Two straight losses start to raise eyebrows. Good news: A get-well trip this week to Washington.

8. (8) Dallas Cowboys (6-2): NFC East leaders have not allowed more than 308 yards or 21 points the last four games.

9. (9) Atlanta Falcons (5-3): Among all legit conference contenders, Falcons give up the most yards per game (369.9).

10. (Not ranked) Houston Texans (5-4): U.Va.'s Matt Schaub leads league in passing TDs (17) and yards (2,653).

Dropped out: Philadelphia Eagles (5-3).

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The picks are in

A 9-4 NFL picking week last time for the blogger in this blog-space, highlighted by calling the Broncos' first loss in Baltimore, and then of course low-lighted by totally misreading the Giants-Eagles game that turned quickly into a fiasco for the stumbling G-Men. For the season, 81-35 (70 percent, uh, rounded up.) This week brings the Redskins back into action -- you have been warned -- a dangerous one for the unbeaten Colts --Houston visits -- and two you-gotta-love-it prime timers -- Sunday's Dallas-Eagles; Monday's Steelers-Broncos.

So let's see:

Falcons (4-3) over Redskins (2-5): Washington's bye week only muted the discord. It kicks back up to full volume here.

Cardinals (4-3) over Bears (4-3): Arizona can finally win on the road (3-0), and the Bears aren't who we thought they were, for various reasons.

Ravens (4-3) over Bengals (5-2): Very impressive how Baltimore took out a much better defense than Cincinnati's last week.

Texans (5-3) over Colts (7-0): Matt Schaub, the league-leader with 2,342 passing yards -- what, you were expecting Peyton Manning? -- directs what should be considered only a mild upset.

Jaguars (3-4) over Chiefs (1-6): Jacksonville's either going to win by a touchdown or get clobbered -- two of it last three games have been 41-0 and 30-13 blowouts. 

Patriots (5-2) over Dolphins (3-4): The road to the AFC East title does go through defending champ Miami, as Dolphins coach Tony Sparano says. So New England barges through the first toll gate without saying "Pardon me."

Packers (4-3) over Buccaneers (0-7): The good news: Tampa Bay remains the favorite for that golden No. 1 draft pick.

Saints (7-0) over Panthers (3-4): If they met in Charlotte, I'd be tempted. But in the dome, 8-0 is gonna happen.

Seahawks (2-5) over Lions (1-6): Seattle's pass-rushing end Darryl Tapp, from Deep Creek High, has one sack on the season.

Giants (5-3) over Chargers (4-3): Tough call here, the way the Giants are swooning. A hunch that San Diego's run defense will be on the field too long and wear down.

49ers (3-4) over Titans (1-6): Interesting that two of the league's top three rushers -- Titans' Chris Johnson and St. Louis' Steven Jackson -- play for one-win teams.

Cowboys (5-2) over Eagles (5-2): Both are rolling, but did you know Dallas offense is second in yards per game to New Orleans? That carries this one, narrowly.

Steelers (5-2) over Broncos (6-1): Denver won't be able to run, and Pittsburgh will sack and otherwise harrass Kyle Orton. Coach Mike Tomlin moves to 5-0 on Monday nights.

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Powerful Saints find a way

Close calls for the top of the NFL's top last weekend with New Orleans and Indianapolis holding on to their undefeated status through seven games. Proving again the typically fickle nature of the league where practically anybody can beat anybody, the only other top-10 team to win (three were off) was the Minnesota Vikings. Denver, Green Bay, Arizona and New York went down to defeats ranging from hard-to-figure (No. 9 Arizona 34-21 at home to Carolina) to humliating (No. 10 New York 40-17 at Philadelphia).

The Dallas Cowboys, though their opposition has been thin, break in to The Pilot's power rankings heading to the halfway point, and the Atlanta Falcons rejoin the party even after losing to the Saints. Also, after giving the Giants tons of rope, say goodbye. I don't believe we'll be seeing them around these parts for quite a while.

 

 

1. (Last week 1) New Orleans Saints (7-0): Sixteen interceptions for these guys -- with five returned for touchdowns. Only one other team, Buffalo, has more than one Pick Six. The league record is nine.

2. (2) Indianapolis Colts (7-0): Colts, up to 15 straight wins now, got another one the hard way (18-14) over San Francisco. They've also won this season by two over Jacksonville and four over Miami.

3. (4) Minnesota Vikings (7-1): It's a race to NFC playoff home field between Vikes and the Saints, through a slightly harder schedule than New Orleans. Vikings remaining opponents are 24-26; Saints 20-30.

4. (3) Denver Broncos (6-1): The result everybody's been waiting for, a 30-7 trouncing by Baltimore that got away from the Broncos in the fourth quarter. We'll know a lot more about the Broncos after Pittsburgh's visit Monday night.

5. (5) New England Patriots (5-2): Who's having the better year, MVP favorite Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? The former, but not by much -- Manning 318 yds. per game, 15 TDs, 4 Int; Brady, coming off knee surgery, 290 per game, 15 TDs, 4 Int.

6. (6) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): Seventh in points allowed (18.4) vs. Denver's second (13.7). Just something to set the Monday night table.

7. (8) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2): Coming off bye week to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh in succession. Hope they're ready and rested.

8. (Not ranked) Dallas Cowboys (5-2): Boys have beaten one winning team (Atlanta) and need to show their recent consistency isn't a fluke.

9. (NR) Atlanta Falcons (4-3): Won popularity points for outgaining Saints 442 yards to 437 in six fewer minutes.

10. (NR) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2): Dallas comes to town to take its shot at preventing DeSean Jackson -- six TDs over 50 yards -- from burning them deep.

Dropped out: Green Bay Packers (4-3), Arizona  Cardinals (4-3), New York Giants (5-2).

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Picks for the Halfway Point

The Dallas Cowboys. Time to re-evaluate them, perhaps, here in Week 8. They looked really strong in taking out the Atlanta Falcons 37-21 last week, a pounding (unforeseen, I admit) that helped bring about a 9-4 picking week for this here blog-prognosticator. Still 70 percent (72-31), though, on the season. Seattle comes to The House That Jerry Built this Sunday. It would be just like the 'Boys to stumble and fall, and if they were on the road I could see it. But not at home.

Then again, I was certain Arizona couldn't and wouldn't win at the Meadowlands over the Giants -- the Cardinals' 24-17 win said otherwise. Who, though, really cares since everybody's all consumed this week with whether scruffy old No. 4 can return to Green Bay and return to his new Minnesota home with Packer pelts.

Anyway, byes this week to the Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Bucs, Steelers and that moribund bunch who plays in Landover, Md. and who is thankful for being far, far away from it all right now.

And so:

Vikings (6-1) over Packers (4-2): Green Bay is a popular pick to stick it to Brett Favre, but even with their way-physical loss in Pittsburgh last week, I think the Vikings can still steal Wisconsin's cheese, or something like that.

Giants (5-2) over Eagles (4-2): Both have been flaky lately, but even in Philly, the Giants are more likely to get straight after their two consecutive losses. So a Philadelphia downer in the afternoon table-setter for that night's World Series Game 4 across the street.

Ravens (3-3) over Broncos (6-0): Predicting (again) the first loss for the Broncos is easier because they're coming east. But the way Baltimore's playing, it'll be little surprise if Denver heads home with a seventh W.

Cowboys (4-2) over Seahawks (2-4): Should not be a difficult chore for Dallas to put disappointing Seattle that much deeper into the underachiever category.

Chicago (3-3) over Cleveland (1-6): A huge break for the Bears -- not so good for Cleveland -- to get a patsy after being embarrassed by Bengals last week.

Colts (6-0) over 49ers (3-3):  Should be harder than it looks for Indy but, in the end, not that much harder.

Dolphins (3-4) over Jets (4-3): No hot-dog time for Jets QB Mark Sanchez in this one. He'll be too busy losing the game.

Lions (1-5) over Rams (0-7): Oh boy. Was gonna fly to Detroit for this one, but figured there'd be no tickets left so why bother?

Cardinals (4-2) over Panthers (2-4): Carolina's vanquisher in last year's NFC playoffs boots Panthers pretty much out of wildcard contention this time.

Jaguars (3-3) over Titans (0-6): Zero chance Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher will ever been seen in public wearing a Vince Young jersey.

Texans (4-3) over Bills (3-4): Kudos to Buffalo for at least avoiding laughingstock status after coming pretty close earlier in season.

Chargers (3-3) over Raiders (2-5): A refreshing pause before San Diego's Giants/Eagles/Broncos trifecta.

Monday Night

Saints (6-0) over Falcons (4-2): Good times, rolling still, in New Orleans.

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