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Tom Robinson

Tom Robinson is a sports columnist for The Virginian-Pilot. He also writes about the NFL. Read Tom's columns and articles here.

The picks are in

A 9-4 NFL picking week last time for the blogger in this blog-space, highlighted by calling the Broncos' first loss in Baltimore, and then of course low-lighted by totally misreading the Giants-Eagles game that turned quickly into a fiasco for the stumbling G-Men. For the season, 81-35 (70 percent, uh, rounded up.) This week brings the Redskins back into action -- you have been warned -- a dangerous one for the unbeaten Colts --Houston visits -- and two you-gotta-love-it prime timers -- Sunday's Dallas-Eagles; Monday's Steelers-Broncos.

So let's see:

Falcons (4-3) over Redskins (2-5): Washington's bye week only muted the discord. It kicks back up to full volume here.

Cardinals (4-3) over Bears (4-3): Arizona can finally win on the road (3-0), and the Bears aren't who we thought they were, for various reasons.

Ravens (4-3) over Bengals (5-2): Very impressive how Baltimore took out a much better defense than Cincinnati's last week.

Texans (5-3) over Colts (7-0): Matt Schaub, the league-leader with 2,342 passing yards -- what, you were expecting Peyton Manning? -- directs what should be considered only a mild upset.

Jaguars (3-4) over Chiefs (1-6): Jacksonville's either going to win by a touchdown or get clobbered -- two of it last three games have been 41-0 and 30-13 blowouts. 

Patriots (5-2) over Dolphins (3-4): The road to the AFC East title does go through defending champ Miami, as Dolphins coach Tony Sparano says. So New England barges through the first toll gate without saying "Pardon me."

Packers (4-3) over Buccaneers (0-7): The good news: Tampa Bay remains the favorite for that golden No. 1 draft pick.

Saints (7-0) over Panthers (3-4): If they met in Charlotte, I'd be tempted. But in the dome, 8-0 is gonna happen.

Seahawks (2-5) over Lions (1-6): Seattle's pass-rushing end Darryl Tapp, from Deep Creek High, has one sack on the season.

Giants (5-3) over Chargers (4-3): Tough call here, the way the Giants are swooning. A hunch that San Diego's run defense will be on the field too long and wear down.

49ers (3-4) over Titans (1-6): Interesting that two of the league's top three rushers -- Titans' Chris Johnson and St. Louis' Steven Jackson -- play for one-win teams.

Cowboys (5-2) over Eagles (5-2): Both are rolling, but did you know Dallas offense is second in yards per game to New Orleans? That carries this one, narrowly.

Steelers (5-2) over Broncos (6-1): Denver won't be able to run, and Pittsburgh will sack and otherwise harrass Kyle Orton. Coach Mike Tomlin moves to 5-0 on Monday nights.

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Powerful Saints find a way

Close calls for the top of the NFL's top last weekend with New Orleans and Indianapolis holding on to their undefeated status through seven games. Proving again the typically fickle nature of the league where practically anybody can beat anybody, the only other top-10 team to win (three were off) was the Minnesota Vikings. Denver, Green Bay, Arizona and New York went down to defeats ranging from hard-to-figure (No. 9 Arizona 34-21 at home to Carolina) to humliating (No. 10 New York 40-17 at Philadelphia).

The Dallas Cowboys, though their opposition has been thin, break in to The Pilot's power rankings heading to the halfway point, and the Atlanta Falcons rejoin the party even after losing to the Saints. Also, after giving the Giants tons of rope, say goodbye. I don't believe we'll be seeing them around these parts for quite a while.

 

 

1. (Last week 1) New Orleans Saints (7-0): Sixteen interceptions for these guys -- with five returned for touchdowns. Only one other team, Buffalo, has more than one Pick Six. The league record is nine.

2. (2) Indianapolis Colts (7-0): Colts, up to 15 straight wins now, got another one the hard way (18-14) over San Francisco. They've also won this season by two over Jacksonville and four over Miami.

3. (4) Minnesota Vikings (7-1): It's a race to NFC playoff home field between Vikes and the Saints, through a slightly harder schedule than New Orleans. Vikings remaining opponents are 24-26; Saints 20-30.

4. (3) Denver Broncos (6-1): The result everybody's been waiting for, a 30-7 trouncing by Baltimore that got away from the Broncos in the fourth quarter. We'll know a lot more about the Broncos after Pittsburgh's visit Monday night.

5. (5) New England Patriots (5-2): Who's having the better year, MVP favorite Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? The former, but not by much -- Manning 318 yds. per game, 15 TDs, 4 Int; Brady, coming off knee surgery, 290 per game, 15 TDs, 4 Int.

6. (6) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): Seventh in points allowed (18.4) vs. Denver's second (13.7). Just something to set the Monday night table.

7. (8) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2): Coming off bye week to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh in succession. Hope they're ready and rested.

8. (Not ranked) Dallas Cowboys (5-2): Boys have beaten one winning team (Atlanta) and need to show their recent consistency isn't a fluke.

9. (NR) Atlanta Falcons (4-3): Won popularity points for outgaining Saints 442 yards to 437 in six fewer minutes.

10. (NR) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2): Dallas comes to town to take its shot at preventing DeSean Jackson -- six TDs over 50 yards -- from burning them deep.

Dropped out: Green Bay Packers (4-3), Arizona  Cardinals (4-3), New York Giants (5-2).

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Picks for the Halfway Point

The Dallas Cowboys. Time to re-evaluate them, perhaps, here in Week 8. They looked really strong in taking out the Atlanta Falcons 37-21 last week, a pounding (unforeseen, I admit) that helped bring about a 9-4 picking week for this here blog-prognosticator. Still 70 percent (72-31), though, on the season. Seattle comes to The House That Jerry Built this Sunday. It would be just like the 'Boys to stumble and fall, and if they were on the road I could see it. But not at home.

Then again, I was certain Arizona couldn't and wouldn't win at the Meadowlands over the Giants -- the Cardinals' 24-17 win said otherwise. Who, though, really cares since everybody's all consumed this week with whether scruffy old No. 4 can return to Green Bay and return to his new Minnesota home with Packer pelts.

Anyway, byes this week to the Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Bucs, Steelers and that moribund bunch who plays in Landover, Md. and who is thankful for being far, far away from it all right now.

And so:

Vikings (6-1) over Packers (4-2): Green Bay is a popular pick to stick it to Brett Favre, but even with their way-physical loss in Pittsburgh last week, I think the Vikings can still steal Wisconsin's cheese, or something like that.

Giants (5-2) over Eagles (4-2): Both have been flaky lately, but even in Philly, the Giants are more likely to get straight after their two consecutive losses. So a Philadelphia downer in the afternoon table-setter for that night's World Series Game 4 across the street.

Ravens (3-3) over Broncos (6-0): Predicting (again) the first loss for the Broncos is easier because they're coming east. But the way Baltimore's playing, it'll be little surprise if Denver heads home with a seventh W.

Cowboys (4-2) over Seahawks (2-4): Should not be a difficult chore for Dallas to put disappointing Seattle that much deeper into the underachiever category.

Chicago (3-3) over Cleveland (1-6): A huge break for the Bears -- not so good for Cleveland -- to get a patsy after being embarrassed by Bengals last week.

Colts (6-0) over 49ers (3-3):  Should be harder than it looks for Indy but, in the end, not that much harder.

Dolphins (3-4) over Jets (4-3): No hot-dog time for Jets QB Mark Sanchez in this one. He'll be too busy losing the game.

Lions (1-5) over Rams (0-7): Oh boy. Was gonna fly to Detroit for this one, but figured there'd be no tickets left so why bother?

Cardinals (4-2) over Panthers (2-4): Carolina's vanquisher in last year's NFC playoffs boots Panthers pretty much out of wildcard contention this time.

Jaguars (3-3) over Titans (0-6): Zero chance Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher will ever been seen in public wearing a Vince Young jersey.

Texans (4-3) over Bills (3-4): Kudos to Buffalo for at least avoiding laughingstock status after coming pretty close earlier in season.

Chargers (3-3) over Raiders (2-5): A refreshing pause before San Diego's Giants/Eagles/Broncos trifecta.

Monday Night

Saints (6-0) over Falcons (4-2): Good times, rolling still, in New Orleans.

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A Powerful tussle at the top

New Orleans. Indianapolis. They're the best the NFL has to offer as the league schedule hits the halfway point. Any debate -- i.e. Denver, New England, Minnesota, Pittsburgh? No, didn't think so.

Next case . . .

1. (Last week 1) New Orleans Saints (6-0): What a thrill-ride, this team. Twenty-two furious fourth-quarter points to recover from its first deficit and surge past Miami. Two more interception returns for TDs, four on the season, by a reborn defense. An average of 40 points scored per game. And a cake schedule, pretty much, from here. I'm thinking 14-2 and home field in the NFC sounds about right.

2. (3) Indianapolis Colts (6-0): Fourteen regular-season wins in a row, on the way to seven straight 12-win seasons. And at 73.5 percent, Peyton Manning's on track to set a league completion record. Good, good times in Indy.

3. (4) Denver Broncos (6-0): Interesting two-game set coming out of the bye for the feel-good boys -- at Baltimore this week, then hosting Pittsburgh the following Monday night.

4. (2) Minnesota Vikings (6-1): Yes, I'm keeping them above the Steelers, who beat them Sunday, because I just think they're better. They WERE going to win in Pittsburgh, but two red-zone turnovers -- one a total fluke -- stymied the Purple ones.  

5. (5) New England Patriots (5-2): After feasting on the weak (Tennessee, Tampa Bay), Pats will have to strap it up against dangerous Miami this week.

6. (8) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): Safety Troy Polamalu's return clearly has put pop back into Steelers' playmaking defense.

7. (9) Green Bay Packers (4-2): Dispatch the kids and clear Sunday afternoon -- B. Favre returns to his Cheesehead roots. 

8. (Not ranked) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2): Tired of the nip and tuck, Bengals waste the Chicago Bears (45-10) and learn total domination is a fun way to play, too. 

9. (NR) Arizona Cardinals (4-2): Rolling now (three straight) after one of the NFL's most impressive efforts this season, coming cross country to spank New York Giants in their own house.

10. (6) New York Giants (5-2): Leaking fluid, but a hunch they're still the NFC East's best despite two-game slide against New Orleans (South) and Arizona (West).

Dropped out: Atlanta Falcons (4-2), Chicago Bears (3-3)

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Post-game from a(nother) long night at FedEx Field

In his postgame comments to the media, Redskins coach Jim Zorn reported tight end Chris Cooley, who left Monday's 27-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the first quarter, had a broken ankle. "We're quite certain (the tibia) is fractured in some way. We'll make a better diagnosis tomorrow, but he will be out for a while now. I don't know if it's going to be a season-ending injury yet."

Zorn, stripped of his play-calling duties this week by owner Dan Snyder, was his usual patient, forthcoming self in his session. Here are some highlights of what he had to say after  his team fell to 2-5:

On the offense's struggles (the Redskins gave up six sacks, four turnovers and converted just three of 12 third downs): "The two-minute drives were good. The short fields were good, those kinds of drives. But what hurt us on offense was just pass pro (protection) and the inability to run consistently (62 yards on 19 carries). We got into these third and longs; we only converted (three) third downs the entire game, and that means the lack of sustained drives. We've just got to go back. A lot of what I need to do is go back and look at what happened on the video, as far as where the failings were, and we'll try to coach to the positive and eliminate those things that did not go well."

On Sherman Lewis' play-calling: "I can get up here today and I can be real critical because I didn't get to call the plays. I could 'Waaaah,' I could whine about it. I could also be real critical, or I could also say it was the best game anybody's ever called in their life, you know? I don't want to do any of that because it's just unfair. It's unfair because I have been the play-caller, and I just don't want anybody to look and have me complaining about what happened or what didn't happen."

How the calls were made: "Here's how it happened: Sherm Lewis called the passing game most of the game, and he did it with a code and we had little numbers and colors and things like that. And then Sherman Smith (the offensive coordinator) really called the run game, and he just did that verbatim and he did a nice job with it. As the mix started, you can call the play, but if you're not sure about the pass pro . . . we had some seven-step drops that were just, it was hard for (Jason Campbell) to really set up and look down the field, the receivers couldn't develop the pattern down the field. And (Campbell) was running. This didn't happen all the time, but after a while, it takes it out of you."

On listening to someone else call the game: "I stuck my nose in at times. It was difficult for me. It was difficult to stand and watch. The hard part is to keep your mouth shut. Because the play-caller gets in a rhythm, you know where you want to go." Zorn said he called the fourth-quarter 1-yard TD pass to tight end Fred Davis. "I called several of the two-minute drill before the half, those were just things that I had a feel for, so I just called them. That's why I said I kind of stuck my nose in there."

On Redskins fans, who booed the mention of Snyder's name beforehand when former player Brian Mitchell was inducted into the team's Ring of Fame: "That's too bad.  . . . I thought our fans were really encouraging the entire game. I was excited about that, especially with all the things that were going on this week. That was a positive for me."

The Redskins are off next weekend and then return to a daunting slate of Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia again and New  Orleans. Those combined records to date? 24-6. Uh oh.

 

 

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Heinz Field fun, flaws and all

Sorry, but you watch enough dreary Washington Redskins games, it can dull you to the reality that there really is captivating pro football out there. That's probably why I enjoyed the Vikings-Steelers clash -- Steelers win 27-17, Vikings fall to 6-1 -- so much.

There were kickoff returns, thanks to Percy Harvin's clutch 88-yarder that gave Minnesota life immediately after Pittsburgh seemed to have snuffed it. Brett Favre's favorite receiver Sidney Rice caught 11 balls for 136 yards, including a terrific 25-yard tip-toe catch along the sideline originally ruled incomplete but that was overturned via Minnesota's challenge. That catch was seemingly going to lead to the Vikings' go-ahead touchdown . . . but no, as we know now.

What else? The Steelers stopped the Vikings from the 1 four times in the third quarter, twice on runs by the great Adrian Peterson (the first was a free play for Minnesota because Pittsburgh was offside). There was furious pass-rushing that led to seven sacks -- Favre four times, Ben Roethlisberger three. And of course, the outstanding defensive plays in the fourth quarter that won it for Pittsburgh, both when Minnesota was poised to take it in or at least kick field goals.

Actually, the Vikings DID score before Pittsburgh's LaMarr Woodley went 77 yards with Favre's fumble. But Favre's 10-yard TD pass to Rice was nullified by a tripping penalty in the backfield. Then, on the Vikings' promising last drive in the final two minutes, when Keyaron Fox rumbled 82 yards with an interception -- because Chester Taylor couldn't handle Favre's soft screen pass -- it was very flawed but very entertaining ballgame over.

Said Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, whose team, like Minnesota, scored one offensive TD (Mike Wallace's 40-yard reception): "You look at some of the things that happened in that game, usually you don't win those. They dominated time of possession (37 minutes to 23). We were 0-for-3 in red-zone football. When you kick field goals versus a good team like that, usually it comes back to bite you. You put 14 points on the board defensively, you can overcome a lot of errors. We were far from a perfect team, but we won today."

 

(UPDATED) A quirky note I just came across, too, courtesy of NFL communications: This was the first NFL game ever in which three return TDs of 75 yards or longer took place in the fourth quarter. . . . Now you know.

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Steelers' D does it again, Vikings take first loss

The Vikings were moving in for at least the tying field goal. Their previous possession had ended in a 77-yard fumble return by Pittsburgh's LaMarr Woodley. But after Percy Harvin's 88-yard kickoff return, Minnesota got the ball back. It was at the Steelers' 19 with less than two minutes left.

But Chester Taylor could not handle a short, soft pass from Brett Favre. The ball squirted through Taylor's hands and into the mitts of linebacker Keyaron Fox. Eighty-two yards later, Fox was in the end zone, and the Steelers -- on the strength of consecutive, long defensive touchdowns -- had a 27-17 victory.

Unbelievable.

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Harvin goes the distance

Percy Harvin just returned the second kickoff of his career for a touchdown -- an 88-yard sprint that brought the Minnesota Vikings to within 20-17 of the Steelers with 6:09 to play. Harvin's huge play answered what looked like Pittsburgh's game-breaker: Brett Keisel stripped Brett Favre of the ball on 3rd and goal from the 8, and linebacker LaMarr Woodley returned the fumble 77 yards to give the Steelers a 20-10 lead.

Two minutes left . . .

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Harvin down, not out

Percy Harvin just took a huge shot from Pittsburgh's safety Ryan Clark on an attempted reception deep down the field. Harvin has become a go-to guy for Brett Favre on third downs, and this was 3rd-and-10 from the Minnesota 24. Harvin took the shot on his left shoulder, which is already injured to a degree, and stayed on one knee on the field for 10 or 15 seconds before jogging off the field

Pittsburgh leads 13-10 after the Steelers' threw a goal-line stand in the third quarter at the Vikings, who were stoned at the 1 and had to kick a field goal.

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Steelers up at the half

Pittsburgh had the ball for barely four minutes in the second quarter, but the Steelers used the precious seconds well, particularly toward the end of the first half. In 75 seconds, Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers 91 yards in  eight plays -- the last one being a 40-yard dart over the middle to rookie Mike Wallace.

The Steelers lead 10-7, and Percy Harvin had much to do with the Vikings' score. He got open along the left sideline early in the second quarter and brought down a 28-yard pass from Brett Favre -- on 3rd-and-6. It was the biggest gainer in Minnesota's 13-play drive that ended on a 2-yard run by Adrian Peterson.

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