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By MARC DAVIS AND HARRY MINIUM
The Virginian-Pilot
For the fourth year in a row, the Census Bureau says, Norfolk is shrinking.
Virginia Beach, too - for the second year in a row.
Is that possible? Are Virginia's two most populous cities really losing residents?
Norfolk officials scoff at the idea. Beach officials say their city is growing slowly. And experts at the University of Virginia say they think both cities are growing, but they acknowledge that it's almost impossible to know for sure.
Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim laughed when told about the new census estimates. "The Beach is growing," he said. "And so is Norfolk."
Today, the Census Bureau will release new population estimates for every county in the United States. The bureau considers Virginia cities equivalent to counties. Here, cities are not a part of counties, unlike those almost everywhere else.
According to the bureau's new estimates:
But is the Census Bureau right? There is reason to doubt.
Every year, experts at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia also estimate populations for each city and county in Virginia. And every year, Weldon Cooper's estimates vary from the Census Bureau's. This year is no exception.
For example, Weldon Cooper says Virginia Beach gained 79 residents last year, while Norfolk gained 1,021.
In general, Weldon Cooper is more bullish on Virginia than the Census Bureau. The experts at U.Va. estimate that 16 Virginia cities and counties lost population last year. The Census Bureau says 31 Virginia cities and counties lost people, led by Norfolk and Virginia Beach.
Who's right?
In the past, Weldon Cooper has been closer to the truth. After the 2000 Census, when every head in America was counted, it turned out that Weldon Cooper's estimates for that year were closer to reality than the Census Bureau's pre-2000 estimates.
Either way, experts agree: It gets harder and harder to estimate population the further you get from a decennial census. After several years, the estimates are just informed guesses.
Weldon Cooper uses a slightly different method than the Census Bureau, including more local data such as housing permits, school enrollment and driver's licenses.
"The Census Bureau has a record of under counting inner cities, that can be statistically demonstrated," Fraim said.
In Virginia Beach, officials use Weldon Cooper's numbers for budgeting. "They have proven to be more accurate, at least for our city," said Paul Harris, who tracks demographic trends for the Beach.
Only one thing will resolve the debate: The 2010 Census, which will count every man, woman and child in the country.
But those results won't be known until 2011.







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No More Norfolk!!
I moved to SW Illinois 4 days ago from the toilet that is Norfolk and Hampton Roads. I hated everything about VA, the taxes were outrageous and the crime was unreal. If I never set foot in the communist commonwealth of VA again it will be too soon! I love the area I'm in now--no traffic, no crime, no tunnels and I am 40 minutes from St. Louis if I want to have a night out. I hate Virginia!
Whats so surrprising?
Whats so surrprising haven't we seen the recent growth in Charlotte, Atlanta, and Raleigh it's no secrect that the more modern sounthern states are not trying to tax people out, but instead are excepting growth in there metro areas. Virginia knows what it is doing.
Just Another Life!
After returning from the mid east, I chose VB to live in. Spent time working for a company that initially paid well. After returning from the desert a 2nd time, the owner cuts salaries and goes off on wanting to have a "christian company" rant. Chapter 13 followed due to salary being cut, and rent going up (I lost my military discount) Ended up a teacher for a company that is "good ol boys" to the core. I tell all of my students to excel in the technology field-by starting your job search and life, away from Hampton Roads. Wages are sub standard and housing is not affordable at all! The local political climate is secretive, and at times seems to border on the illegal. I see nothing being done. I see the common person trying to work and just get deeper into debt. Count me in as one of the few who will be leaving.
Agree
I don't see this as a mass exodus but the middle class is being squeezed in the Hampton Roads area by property taxes, low wages and the increased cost of living which include gas prices. Poor leadership in the local and state governments has only compounded the problems. The rich getting richer.. the blight gets uglier.. and the local governments have their pet projects. The division between the local and state governments have resulted in major traffic problems that could be relieved by a mass transit system, but the councils are too worried about tourism, growing downtown areas and lining their own pockets - rice bowl mentalities instead of cooperation! Meyera's departure will be a good start for the beach.. which seriously needs fresh new leadership and someone who is going to bridge the gaps between the cities and foster an era of cooperation that will usher in more business besides restaurants, hospitality & tourism and doctors, lawyers and military related businesses.
Hmmm...
This is interesting, but nothing is dramatically showing some mass exodus as some might believe. I do think the traffic will have some negative impact for the Southside because people are tired of watching two lanes paid for with tax dollars that are basically underused during rush hour while three lanes are stop-n-go traffic. There comes a point when the ability to leave pops up and people take it so that it appears the departure is job related when in fact the family would have stayed had there been less traffic. Hard to say until the census is taken so I'll reserve my judgment until then - that is, if I'm around in 2011 because I'm really getting tired of all the traffic...
Keep laughing it up Fraim
You and the rest of the council are taxing Norfolk residents right out of the area! $.88 in 08 or recall them all!
Mayor Still laughs at the numbers... Telling isn't it
This is the fourth year in a row that the mayor and council laugh at reality when these numbers are presented. The subsidies won't come out of the taxpayer… sure
And we need more condominiums… tell me another one
We need light rail….. if you say so
More lies and denial from the leaders we put in place.
They decide our fate for development over industry and all the while the pay-offs come behind closed door and the country-club sect get richer with their old money and continue to control and exploits.
A sad truth
You get what you deserve
Im inclined to believe that Virginia Beach and Norfolk are both shrinking. Can anyone reading this article living in a more moderatley priced neighborhood in VB not claim that there is no less then 10 houses for sale in their neighborhood? This is going to become nothing but worse, as the elder residents cant afford the taxes, and the younger folks cant afford housing at all, and either must live with their parents, or leave here altogether. My prediction is a serious brain drain on this area, as the numerous kids graduating from the local colleges, move on to areas which they can afford a house and to start a family, rather then stay in this overpriced dump, and live in a terrible neighborhood, or with their parents until theyre 35.
VB Economy
VB is an economic toll booth for doctors and their lawyers,
for lawyers and their doctors. Any reports on the divorce
rate in VB compared to other cities in VB? For all the beauty
of VB, including the beautiful people, it is a lonely place, a
treadmill where form trumps substance. All that said, it
is a remarkable place for the single minded. It is a great
place to live, and a horrible place to visit. Ironic.
I'm leaving as soon as I can.
I'm leaving this armpit called hampton roads just as soon as my jobhunt ends. Low cost of living in southeast Virginia? Huh? How about low paying/stagnant saleries in southeast Virginia! - That's a more accurate description.
Virginia Beach losing money? I've said this all along!
Well...hellooo! Anyone home??? I've said this for years! Va. Bch/Hampton Roads area is a military town! Retirees/Military Dependents....when Navy personnel get out of the Navy....they don't want to stay here! Job market tow low for and welfare pay! I've been recruited for I.T. jobs ("Help Desk") for $11/hr. when the going rate is $19/$20 hr. There is no possible way a family of (5) can survive on $16/hr. Taxes, gas prices, economy, housing is too high and the income doesn't increase. Hampton Roads needs a reality slap if they lose more people. Raise the cost of living....raise the minimum wage and respectable (affordable) pay and they stay...it's that simple.
I left
and moved to Williamsburg from Ocean View. Why?
Assessments thru the roof.
I-64 nightmare.
Poor quality of life.
I love the burg...just hope its "growth" doesn't jump thru the roof, but it looks that way!
Yeah, me too...
I left but I miss how it "used" to be. I have always wondered how those numbers work? The population has barely moved since I was a teen(long time ago), yet the place has many new homes. You don't see many empty ones at the beach either. If it must grow, so I think the beach has taken a good direction. But that is all: a direction. I didn't leave the beach because of cost, I left because of quality of life. My child could not even ride her bike at the oceanfront(where I lived) because of those 4 wheeled contraptions. I could not cross Pacific Avenue while out running some days. The police simply go through the motions and did not seem at all interested in actually protecting the citizens. It was really sad.
The cost of living keeps going up
Everybody is leaving because the cost of living is too high !!!!!! Salaries are not increasing,if at all,
At a rate that will compensate for the increase in the things(property taxes, fees...etc) attributed with the cost of living.
Isn't it ironic?
Va. Beach argues the numbers of Welden Cooper yet they were using their numbers for tax purposes. Sure, VB is onboard when census numbers are up. This adds to their tax base which in turn fattens up the cities coffers. After being touted by magazines and played up in the press for so many years this has got to be sort of like a supermodel being told she has a zit on her face. Norfolk on the other hand acts like that middle child that wrestles for attention. Norfolk doesn't want VB or a small town like Suffolk to shine too much or run into the worst case sceanrio-have its residents move to Suffolk or the Peninsula. I'm waiting to see some promise from this region as a whole. Plant closings and military cutbacks (personnel, shipbuilding and ship repair) are affecting the region economically. I won't be suprised if in the next few quarters we'll all start to see foreclosures in the region shoot through the roof.
I can see why that would happen.
Well Virginia beach as others have said is getting to expensive and with the prices you don't get the security gang activity is raising... Norfolk is lower income but taxes are higher and gang activity and other things are rising. I understand low income but the housing should be at least livable and make people want to live there with children. I couldn't live in that area if i wanted to the stealing and such are just too high. The prices are low enough but you would be at risk of too much there.
Only going to get worse
Unless the citizens make some changes to City Council and get a new City Manager, VB is going to soon become a place where only the wealthy can afford to live. I was a loyal City of Virginia Beach employee for 15 years, and I left last year because as a single parent, I could not find housing in a decent neighborhood that was even close to affordable. (Meanwhile, the city is spending huge amounts of money on Sports Comlexes that rarely get used, hotels that the citizens don't want, and consultants to tell them things they should already know.) I'm definitely not missing that 'stuff' at all down here in the middle of nowhere!
Wake Up Call for Virginia Beach
You can argue whose numbers are the more accurate but at the least Virginia Beach growth has stalled. Due to Oceana and the artificial green line there really is not much land available for new housing construction in the city. You can argue for higher density housing (The oceanfront is ideal for developing a high-density urban community) but the best place for that, the oceanfront, is off limits because of Oceana. So, what is the result? Increased growth in Chesapeake and Suffolk! Bottom line, Virginia Beach is falling behind and unless the city council crafts a realistic 100-year strategic plan by mid-century both Chesapeake and Suffolk will grow larger in populations. This of course will then prompt the upgrading of 460 into a multi-lane interstate that connects to 295. That will be the death knell for Virginia Beach: Why come to Virginia Beach when you have vibrant communities in Suffolk and Chespeake that are more accessible to Richmond, D.C. and I-95/I-295.
The real reasons
The real reason that no one is willing to address is the cost of living. It now requires $120K/year household income to afford the median home in Hampton Roads, but salaries are still $60K/median income in Virginia Beach (less in all other cities). I haven't ever had a job that was challenging here (I'm in technology/IT). Taxes are now high, rents are high, and most employers come here to pay low salaries (this was an issue as some of the economic development groups had this listed as a feature for the region some time ago until the Pilot (Dave Addis) pointed this out). I would be willing to bet a large number of homes that are for sale are empty, purchased only for speculation by people looking to get rich quick on the backs of the young new home buyers and poor & stupid that got suckered into funky loans by slimy salespeople setting up foreign investors for huge losses in the heat of a mania.
Someone is full of
1. Tax assessment through the roof.
2. Some relestate company says we are number one! We're not even in the top 25 in every other leading economic think tank and periodicals.
3. Housing market dived 18 months ago. No one wants to admit it!
4. SPSA overspent by 300 million!
5. Traffic getting worse.
6. VDOT clueless
7. Kaine clueless
8. Jobless rate on the rise (up 2.3 percent)
and the list goes on and on and on! What the heck are these folks smoking? Been awhile since I've been on an LSD trip but this takes it all.
We also left...
Couldn't stand the traffic. Couldn't stand the noise. Couldn't stand the high cost of breathing in Hampton Roads. Two years ago, we moved out to Sussex County and now we have the best of all worlds being between Richmond and Hampton Roads, but without needing to deal with I-64. It was the best decision our family ever made.
Focus on the problem
Let's not get into an argument about whether we are growing or not growing. The point is that our growth is very slow, and frankly, the implication of full employment is really starting to assert itself as a major issue. Many businesses and many public agencies are having great difficulty finding qualified workers. Our essential full employment is a problem for recruiting new firms to this area as it has become diffucult to assure CEO's that they will be able to recruit and train qualified workers for their business. In fact, some manufacturers and operators of labor intensive businesses have quietly shifted resources to support work force training programs rather than economic development programs; that is not to say that they don't welcome economic development, but their first priority has become workforce training. The Hampton Roads Partnership should be bringing together city, business, education, and military leaders to address this critical strategic issue.
What?????????
If the population is lessening, why is traffic so bad and why can't Richmond decide on a transportation budget? Weldon Cooper is only using estimates, they don't have hard data and as far as the beach using estimates for tax purposes, baloney!
Norfolk
Maybe if the mayor and the city would do something to curb the gang activity, rising taxes, and daily violence instead of pouring oodles of money into Ghent (where you can pay $400k for a condo with a view of the ghetto) maybe those of us who live here would stay here. As soon as I retire from the navy, I'm moving my family to somewhere peaceful...like Maine!
Go figure
When the City of Virginia Beach keeps raising property taxes and pricing individuals out of their homes, what do they expect, it makes it less desirable to live in the city only to struggle to make a living and keep a roof over ones head- If the city wants to keep it's citizenship count in on track they need to shave off at least 10-15 cents off the property tax, to help the majority of us out- I've though about selling and moving, yes a long commute, but heck, other municipalities in the area tend to listen more to their citizens
Of course it is...
Heck, with the way cities are taxing people, no one can afford to live ehre. Of course they are moving elsewhere. And since we don't wan to tax the business, cause that would be bad, the cities put it to the homeowner. Of course once all the taxpayers leave, the business will be gone too!
ok
come on guys - the population can't be going down! we're building all these new houses, cause so many people want to come live here, right?
Experts?
What makes them an expert? They can count higher than a 3rd grader? Here's a novel idea to pass along to these "experts" regarding the Beach: check out all the new homes constructed in the past couple of years. More vehicles on the roads and more students in the schools are also what I (a layman) would say indicates the population is growing.
I Can Believe It
I can see it being true... especially in Norfolk. I was a long time Norfolk resident, I moved my family from that city in `05 and never looked back, it is certainly the best decision we have ever made.
I'm A Recent Shrinkee!
I left Norfolk 2 weeks ago and moved to an undisclosed location in Southwest Colorado. I can drive the 18 miles to work at 7:30 in the morning,from the middle of downtown, without ever having to adjust the cruise control. It won't stay this way forever but for now it beats Military Highway and Princess Anne at noon!