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By MARC DAVIS AND HARRY MINIUM
The Virginian-Pilot
For the fourth year in a row, the Census Bureau says, Norfolk is shrinking.
Virginia Beach, too - for the second year in a row.
Is that possible? Are Virginia's two most populous cities really losing residents?
Norfolk officials scoff at the idea. Beach officials say their city is growing slowly. And experts at the University of Virginia say they think both cities are growing, but they acknowledge that it's almost impossible to know for sure.
Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim laughed when told about the new census estimates. "The Beach is growing," he said. "And so is Norfolk."
Today, the Census Bureau will release new population estimates for every county in the United States. The bureau considers Virginia cities equivalent to counties. Here, cities are not a part of counties, unlike those almost everywhere else.
According to the bureau's new estimates:
But is the Census Bureau right? There is reason to doubt.
Every year, experts at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia also estimate populations for each city and county in Virginia. And every year, Weldon Cooper's estimates vary from the Census Bureau's. This year is no exception.
For example, Weldon Cooper says Virginia Beach gained 79 residents last year, while Norfolk gained 1,021.
In general, Weldon Cooper is more bullish on Virginia than the Census Bureau. The experts at U.Va. estimate that 16 Virginia cities and counties lost population last year. The Census Bureau says 31 Virginia cities and counties lost people, led by Norfolk and Virginia Beach.
Who's right?
In the past, Weldon Cooper has been closer to the truth. After the 2000 Census, when every head in America was counted, it turned out that Weldon Cooper's estimates for that year were closer to reality than the Census Bureau's pre-2000 estimates.
Either way, experts agree: It gets harder and harder to estimate population the further you get from a decennial census. After several years, the estimates are just informed guesses.
Weldon Cooper uses a slightly different method than the Census Bureau, including more local data such as housing permits, school enrollment and driver's licenses.
"The Census Bureau has a record of under counting inner cities, that can be statistically demonstrated," Fraim said.
In Virginia Beach, officials use Weldon Cooper's numbers for budgeting. "They have proven to be more accurate, at least for our city," said Paul Harris, who tracks demographic trends for the Beach.
Only one thing will resolve the debate: The 2010 Census, which will count every man, woman and child in the country.
But those results won't be known until 2011.
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No More Norfolk!!
I moved to SW Illinois 4 days ago from the toilet that is Norfolk and Hampton Roads. I hated everything about VA, the taxes were outrageous and the crime was unreal. If I never set foot in the communist commonwealth of VA again it will be too soon! I love the area I'm in now--no traffic, no crime, no tunnels and I am 40 minutes from St. Louis if I want to have a night out. I hate Virginia!
Whats so surrprising?
Whats so surrprising haven't we seen the recent growth in Charlotte, Atlanta, and Raleigh it's no secrect that the more modern sounthern states are not trying to tax people out, but instead are excepting growth in there metro areas. Virginia knows what it is doing.
Just Another Life!
After returning from the mid east, I chose VB to live in. Spent time working for a company that initially paid well. After returning from the desert a 2nd time, the owner cuts salaries and goes off on wanting to have a "christian company" rant. Chapter 13 followed due to salary being cut, and rent going up (I lost my military discount) Ended up a teacher for a company that is "good ol boys" to the core. I tell all of my students to excel in the technology field-by starting your job search and life, away from Hampton Roads. Wages are sub standard and housing is not affordable at all! The local political climate is secretive, and at times seems to border on the illegal. I see nothing being done. I see the common person trying to work and just get deeper into debt. Count me in as one of the few who will be leaving.
Agree
I don't see this as a mass exodus but the middle class is being squeezed in the Hampton Roads area by property taxes, low wages and the increased cost of living which include gas prices. Poor leadership in the local and state governments has only compounded the problems. The rich getting richer.. the blight gets uglier.. and the local governments have their pet projects. The division between the local and state governments have resulted in major traffic problems that could be relieved by a mass transit system, but the councils are too worried about tourism, growing downtown areas and lining their own pockets - rice bowl mentalities instead of cooperation! Meyera's departure will be a good start for the beach.. which seriously needs fresh new leadership and someone who is going to bridge the gaps between the cities and foster an era of cooperation that will usher in more business besides restaurants, hospitality & tourism and doctors, lawyers and military related businesses.
Hmmm...
This is interesting, but nothing is dramatically showing some mass exodus as some might believe. I do think the traffic will have some negative impact for the Southside because people are tired of watching two lanes paid for with tax dollars that are basically underused during rush hour while three lanes are stop-n-go traffic. There comes a point when the ability to leave pops up and people take it so that it appears the departure is job related when in fact the family would have stayed had there been less traffic. Hard to say until the census is taken so I'll reserve my judgment until then - that is, if I'm around in 2011 because I'm really getting tired of all the traffic...
Keep laughing it up Fraim
You and the rest of the council are taxing Norfolk residents right out of the area! $.88 in 08 or recall them all!
Mayor Still laughs at the numbers... Telling isn't it
This is the fourth year in a row that the mayor and council laugh at reality when these numbers are presented. The subsidies won't come out of the taxpayer… sure
And we need more condominiums… tell me another one
We need light rail….. if you say so
More lies and denial from the leaders we put in place.
They decide our fate for development over industry and all the while the pay-offs come behind closed door and the country-club sect get richer with their old money and continue to control and exploits.
A sad truth
You get what you deserve
Im inclined to believe that Virginia Beach and Norfolk are both shrinking. Can anyone reading this article living in a more moderatley priced neighborhood in VB not claim that there is no less then 10 houses for sale in their neighborhood? This is going to become nothing but worse, as the elder residents cant afford the taxes, and the younger folks cant afford housing at all, and either must live with their parents, or leave here altogether. My prediction is a serious brain drain on this area, as the numerous kids graduating from the local colleges, move on to areas which they can afford a house and to start a family, rather then stay in this overpriced dump, and live in a terrible neighborhood, or with their parents until theyre 35.
VB Economy
VB is an economic toll booth for doctors and their lawyers,
for lawyers and their doctors. Any reports on the divorce
rate in VB compared to other cities in VB? For all the beauty
of VB, including the beautiful people, it is a lonely place, a
treadmill where form trumps substance. All that said, it
is a remarkable place for the single minded. It is a great
place to live, and a horrible place to visit. Ironic.
I'm leaving as soon as I can.
I'm leaving this armpit called hampton roads just as soon as my jobhunt ends. Low cost of living in southeast Virginia? Huh? How about low paying/stagnant saleries in southeast Virginia! - That's a more accurate description.