VIRGINIA BEACH
Despite a virtually unknown challenger with no political experience, the 2nd District race may prove to be one of the region's most competitive.
The incumbent, U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake, 58, is working to tamp down an early surge from Glenn Nye, 33, a former diplomat from Norfolk.
Although he trails financially, Nye, a Democrat, bested Drake in the last campaign finance cycle and appears in position to test the two-term Republican congresswoman, political observers say.
Throw in a presidential race certain to draw more voters, a popular former Democratic governor running for the U.S. Senate, the close victory by Drake in 2006 in a traditionally conservative district, and the contest could be tight.
"If I had to handicap the race right now, the odds favor Drake, but she's obviously beatable," said Quentin Kidd, a political science professor at Christopher Newport University.
"The question is: Is the combination of Mark Warner coattails and (Barack) Obama popularity enough?"
Nye's biggest challenge is getting his name out.
"He's completely unknown," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.
Until last year, Nye, a Norfolk Academy and Georgetown University graduate, spent most of his adult life traveling from one global hot spot to another - Macedonia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, the West Bank and Iraq - first as a foreign service officer and then with the Agency for International Development, both with the Department of State.
Now he's hoping his experience in war-torn countries will resonate with voters in the military-heavy 2nd District, which encompasses all of Virginia Beach, part of Norfolk, part of Hampton, and the Eastern Shore.
"I speak the language," Nye said. "I've strapped on body armor."
His campaign literature touts a State Department award he received in 2001 for aiding in the rescue of an American hostage in Macedonia and for helping evacuate 26 other Americans.
Although it is thought that Nye will get a boost by sharing the Democratic ticket with Obama, the party's presumptive presidential nominee, and Warner, the former governor running for senator, Republicans say this could be exaggerated.
"The unknown is the Obama factor," said Gary Byler, Republican chairman of the 2nd District. "We don't know if all these people who registered are going to show up."
High voter turnout is almost certain, others say.
"I expect we'll have the largest African American turnout in Virginia's history," Kidd said. In the 2nd District, 22 percent of the residents are black.
Nye has secured donations from national Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Rep. Charles Rangel of New York, a sign that the party likely will funnel more money his way.
Name recognition is not an issue f or Drake, who is seeking her third term. Before she was a congresswoman, the former real estate agent was a General Assembly delegate from 1995 to 2004.
Despite Nye's fund raising spike, Drake has outraised him, outspent him and socked away more money. As of June 30, she had raised $1.3 million and had $682,000 on hand. Nye had raised $515,000 and had $409,000 left.
"To be competitive, challengers need to come closer to the fund raising and spending of the incumbent than this," said Jesse Richman, a political science professor at Old Dominion University.
Drake's narrow 2006 victory over Phil Kellam, the Democratic commissioner of revenue in Virginia Beach, shows that she may be vulnerable.
"When an incumbent gets a mere 51 percent, that sends up a giant red flag," Sabato said. "Having said that, Democrats would have been far better off getting an elected Democrat from Virginia Beach."
Drake has maintained close ties with the Bush administration despite its sagging popularity in polls. She played host to former White House strategist Karl Rove and Bush adviser Ed Gillespie for fund raisers.
Nye has pounced on Drake's alliance with the White House, portraying her as a party ideologue.
"I'm not somebody who's going to stick to one party and people like that," he said.
Rove attempted to pre-empt this line of attack after the fundraiser when he characterized Drake as an "independent" thinker.
Drake points to issues on which she split with the White House, such as her vote against the bailout of lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"She is anything but a Bush rubber stamp," said Corry Bliss, Drake's campaign manager.
The congresswoman might also benefit from likely Republican presidential candidate John McCain's appeal among veterans. She headlined an Oceanfront kickoff for the group "Virginia Veterans for McCain" for president.
"I see McCain as giving Drake a bit of an edge," Sabato said.
Oil exploration has divided the candidates.
Drake wants Congress to lift the moratorium on offshore drilling, which she says could help ease energy prices.
"We have huge reserves of resources, and we're dead wrong to shut those off and not use them," she said.
Nye opposes drilling, citing Navy concerns that it could threaten training exercises off Virginia's coast.
On Iraq, Drake is optimistic.
"What's happening there is absolutely phenomenal," she said.
Drake said she's reluctant to talk about U.S. troop withdrawals and exit strategies until Gen. David Petraeus gives his assessment of the war in the fall.
"You always have to defer to the commanders on the ground," said Drake, who has visited Iraq four times.
Nye, who spent most of 2007 in Iraq working for the State Department, agreed the situation there is improving. "Violence is down. There's no doubt about it."
He said the way to end the war is to reduce the American presence, forcing Iraqis to take more responsibility.
"We need to show them that we're not going to be there forever," he said. "We need to set our exit strategy and start to implement it."
In the end, Drake's demonstrated ability to survive might make the difference, experts said. She won in 2004 with fractured support from local Republicans. She narrowly kept her seat amid the 2006 Democratic takeover of the House and Senate, withstanding an aggressive attack from MoveOn.org, a liberal political group.
"If she wins this, she's almost like the Teflon congresswoman," said Kidd from CNU. "If she squeaks by again, then there's something about her that voters can't bring themselves to kick out."
Aaron Applegate, (757) 222-5122, aaron.applegate@pilotonline.com
Delicious
Digg
Reddit
Facebook
Google
Yahoo
Pretty wide ranging post. I
Pretty wide ranging post. I do agree that the federal government has gotten into many areas of service delivery better left to the states. On energy, I also believe compromise legislation has the best chance; that is, conservation, incentives for clean energy, and expansion of sources for existing fuels. I am not as worried about "foreign oil" as most of that comes from Mexico and Canada.
Apologies to Mike Barrett
Sorry Mike, I jumped to conclusions. Where do you stand on my second post where I lay out many issues.
Well David, I don't think
Well David, I don't think Brian even minds the description. Afterall, he has run campaigns for money, and he participates in advising political candidates as well. I meant no insult to him, I was just asking him in this case to deal with the issue at hand as he would as a citizen. On the other hand, I don't run campaigns and while I offer my views as a citizen to candidates, I am not employed to do so and simply participate as any citizen would.
Want to discuss issues?
I wish everyone would go back and read the Constitution.
Here are my proposals:
1. Do away with Departments of Education, Interior, Agriculture, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development for a start. These areas are all states rights issues. What business is it of the Federal Government to create a "National Park"? There should only be state and local parks. One example. What business is it of the Feds to tell Virginia or one of our cities what they must do to house people and develop cities?
Bush has been terrible in expanding government. Obama will be worse than McCain. Ron Paul is the only one who might have stopped the expansion.
2. Secure our borders now!!!! then figure out what to do with all the illegals (deport, guest worker programs etc etc.
3. Drill domestically, allow new refineries, expand nuclear, continue with solar, wind, hydrogen and anything else that American ingenuity can develop. Do it all.
4. Getting rid of all of the departments in 1. above will drastically decrease the size of the federal bloated bureaucracy. Keep our defenses strong but stop being the policeman of the world.
5. Get rid of all programs
Political Operative
Hey Barrett, you accuse Brian of being a "political operative"...that is definitely the pot calling the kettle black. Good Grief.
Not so fast richard
"Thelma beat Phil Kellam's butt so bad the last election he'll never run for office again."
Drake won by 51% to Kellam's 49%. That's not beating anyone so bad that Drake can be so sure of herself to think she can not lose to Nye. Drake is walking a tight-rope, people are sick of her Bush politics, and now with Rove in her corner it looks even worst. With Bush out of office who will tell Drake how to think, speak, act, and vote? The woman has no mind of her own!
Voting for Drake is voting for 4 more years of George Bush?
The mindless dolts can't even remember that a term in the House is only 2 years. If you're that stupid do us a favour by staying home on election day. We don't need your help. Thelma beat Phil Kellam's butt so bad the last election he'll never run for office again.
Some ideas
Think our food supply should be safer? Don't vote for Drake-she voted for less oversight on our food supply. (Watch out for those Jalapeno peppers, tomatoes, spinach, etc.) Think poor children would benefit from health care? Don't vote for Drake. Do you think we should require oil companies to use their current leases-now-before we drill in new areas for oil? Then don't vote for Drake.
As far as the picture goes-that is an old picture of Drake.
We need a new, thinking representative, 2nd District-so vote Glenn Nye in Nov!
Brian, just for once, why
Brian, just for once, why not stop being a political operative and just engage in rational discourse on the issues. I have met Glenn Nye, and frankly, Thelma Drake as well. I do not hold her responsible for the incredible shame brought on this country by this administration, but I do blame her for essentially voting for every initiative of the Bush administration that has brought the largest budget deficit in the history of the U.S A., the most outrage from our allies and friends abroad over our one sided go it alone foreign policies, and the most incredible politization of the Department of Justice in the history of our nation. Now what right thinking voter would return her to office with this millstone around her neck.
sneaky republicans
republicans want to take this country back to the dark ages while they prosper,but we want let them this time.vote the shameful republicans out.
bad republicans
thelma drake is bad for virginia and the rest of this country.
RE: Gertz Point
"Keep drinking the Kool-Aide and vote Democratic. You still cannot explain your party's "Do Nothing" House and Senate or their 18% approval rating."
Trust me I will keep voting Democratic. Why in the world would I vote for the likes of Bush, Cheney, Gilmore, or Drake? You have some real winner in your corner. The 18% approval is because of the House Republicans.
Vote Incumbents out
I'm all for change, as in getting out the incumbents and putting in new representatives, no matter from what party. How does that old saying go? 'Politicians are like diapers: both need to be changed regularly before they create too much of a stink.'
At least this time the Pilot got a good shot of Thelma Drake: Nye's picture makes him look like a mindless twit. They really should be more aware of the images they use.
Brian: Given your statement
Brian: Given your statement about Nye's job to unseat drake, I guess that makes Themla an "unprofessional politician." Given her voting voting record in Congress, I couldn't agree more... Her recent "anti-GI Bill" vote was just stupid and show just how much she is out of touch.
Personally, I think Nye has a solid chance to defeat her and I've never met the guy.
thank you
thank you for this article.
Mega Vote Just In
Foreclosure Prevention Act - Vote Passed (272-152, 11 Not Voting)
The House passed this housing-recovery package.
Rep. Thelma Drake voted NO.
Consumer Energy Supply Act - Vote Failed (268-157, 10 Not Voting)
The House failed to attain the two-thirds margin needed to pass this bill to release 10 percent of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Rep. Thelma Drake voted NO.
If you are not signed up for how your elected officials vote you can do so at congress,org.
Why bother?
Why even bother voting at all when the majority of Congress members in both parties are there primarily to advance their own careers by any means necessary with the goal of collecting big paychecks, cushy retirement packages, and fabulous benefits. It is my opinion that 'we the people' need to re-think how we want things done in Washington. We do this by getting rid of career politicians from both parties by amending the Constitution and imposing much stricter term limits of those who run for elected office. No elected official should be able to serve more than one 2-4 year term.
poco - no lie
Poco - no lie, all day I've had it in my head... "Bill Nye the science guy... BILL.. BILL.. BILL.. BILL.." People, stop with the democrat versus republican banter - they are both leading our county into the ground. The real issues are never addressed. We need real leaders, not Obama or McCain.
If that's his only job...
"Nye's current job is to run an effective campaign to unseat the incumbent"
That makes him a professional politician.
hey david
One thing is for certain we know what Drake will undoubtedly do, like she has always done and that's be a supportive of Bush and will continue his political views. That we do know absolutely. Sheesh! And who were you calling a wench?