Poll: Gov. Kaine's numbers stay up - for the most part

RICHMOND

With a little more than one year left in the term of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, his stewardship is viewed positively by a majority of Virginians, according to a recent statewide poll of likely voters.

The same survey, however, shows that while Kaine's favorable rating remains steady, his disapproval numbers have risen.

Kaine received rankings of "good" or "excellent" from 54 percent of 625 respondents to the telephone survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday by the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research firm. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Kaine's current positive tally is nearly identical to the 55 percent positive evaluation he received in a July 2006 Mason-Dixon poll, though there are some differences in the categorical ratings.

The governor's "excellent" scores rose to 20 percent from 14 percent since the last poll, while his "good" job ratings dropped to 34 percent from 41 percent.

On the flip side, the percentage of people who rated Kaine's performance as just "fair" grew to 30 percent from 26 percent between the two surveys, and those who think the governor has performed poorly jumped to 11 percent from 8 percent.

Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker said Kaine's poll numbers are "kind of the half-full, half-empty thing."

"He's kept the popularity that he had when he came into office, but he hasn't really built on it," Coker said, noting that the troubled economy could cause Kaine's numbers to plummet.

Indeed, the poll comes at a turbulent time for Kaine.

With about 15 months left as governor, Kaine is already being called a lame duck by some Republicans.

That criticism is likely to intensify as the governor works to cut state spending by as much as $2.9 billion.

Slower-than-expected growth in state revenues such as sales and income tax collections necessitates the potentially painful cuts, which Kaine recently warned "will be seen and felt."

He has said he will announce his recommended budget reductions this week.

Kaine's approval ratings remain close to those of his two immediate predecessors at similar points in their terms: 58 percent for Gov. Mark Warner in 2004 and 59 percent for Gov. Jim Gilmore in 1999.

The two former governors are locked in a race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John Warner, who is retiring.

Julian Walker, (804) 697-1564, julian.walker@pilotonline.com